While we are all trying to demystify this curing weird Crab market where we have done nothing else than going sideways or even going down to $25k like right now. But in situations like right now where we are sitting at pivotal moments and the midst of a transition between bear market and bull market it usually does help to look back at the past.
Personally, I always like to say that the past is always a part of the future. Obviously we won‘t be seeing a 1:1 or even 1:0.5 repeat, but it will be good to look back:
BTC short–term holder realized price, chart from Mitchellhodl
Here we can see the Short-term holder realized price, which is basically the average buy price for short-term holders and it has often acted as crucial support and resistance for BTC and it was the same in this year too. That is basically because this average buy price acts as an equilibrium for short-term holders to start selling.
While we have stayed above it for this whole year and it acted as a support to catapult us to new year-to-date heights, after this recent price crash towards $25k we have taken that short-term holder realized price as resistance for the first time.
This is very akin to 2019, where after a mini bull market where BTC stayed above it as support then it fell below after that mini bull market. Then we remained in a small correction until the next Halving and timing-wise we are at the very same trajectory right now. So now it is time to show endurance once again, the upcoming months could be boring, they could be bearish, but we will stay as always.