While we are all trying to demystify this curing weird Crab market where we have done nothing else than going sideways or even going down to $25k like right now. But in situations like right now where we are sitting at pivotal moments and the midst of a transition between bear market and bull market it usually does help to look back at the past.
Personally, I always like to say that the past is always a part of the future. Obviously we won‘t be seeing a 1:1 or even 1:0.5 repeat, but it will be good to look back:
BTC short–term holder realized price, chart from Mitchellhodl
Here we can see the Short-term holder realized price, which is basically the average buy price for short-term holders and it has often acted as crucial support and resistance for BTC and it was the same in this year too. That is basically because this average buy price acts as an equilibrium for short-term holders to start selling.
While we have stayed above it for this whole year and it acted as a support to catapult us to new year-to-date heights, after this recent price crash towards $25k we have taken that short-term holder realized price as resistance for the first time.
This is very akin to 2019, where after a mini bull market where BTC stayed above it as support then it fell below after that mini bull market. Then we remained in a small correction until the next Halving and timing-wise we are at the very same trajectory right now. So now it is time to show endurance once again, the upcoming months could be boring, they could be bearish, but we will stay as always.
I believe right around the next halving, we might enter a Bull phase and that would affect alt coins as well. So next year is going to be fun.
No hurry bro, more time to accumulate, i’m just gonna keep my dca game going strong and dream of green candles for now.
Considering these times with high rates and inflation we are in right now, it might be true we will look at lower prices. That would give us better buying opportunities though
HODL and DCA all the way, I’ve been very strict about ETH and BTC loading this year. Its been hard to ignore my emotions with a few of these pumps though!
I’m all for the hope of another incredible bull run, but there’s no guarantee trends will continue or cyclical behavior will repeat. Even when we see familiar moves, there’s always a chance it’ll deviate at any given time.
Still, I’m praying for the good times returning.
Have an end sell price in mind and ignore all of the short term noise and prices until your end price arrives.
You need to think positive… more time for DCAing and farming
The longer this crab market keeps crabbing i will have more time to follow my DCA plans and keep accumulating.
A few months after the halving is when the markets are going to get sky high, it seems like the ETF are going to get approved around that date also
I’m all about that Hopium but honestly, predictions like these goes right over my head. The only thing we are 100% is nobody knows anything, so your best bet is to keep buying and holding while praying for the best.
Blackrock are going to perfectly coincide their ETF around the time of the halving so that they maximise their gains completely
Let’s hope bottom is in
Keep holding folks, the bull market will come.
This sub need to learn the halvening isn’t doing shit. Not at this point in the game. The name of the game is liquidity and that’s not coming until things get worse from here…..
Love the analysis OP. Hopefully we continue to follow the same patterns we have done in the past. In reality, we really have no clue what will happen.
There seems to be a lot of big factors at play both bullish and bearish.
I just DCA until next ATH, helps me not stress too much about bear/bull/crab and whatnot
Thing is it looks this way but with Bitcoin becoming so scarce it would shock me too come back down near 15k$ I think we will see 18k but wouldn’t surprise me if we keep going up steadily rather then all at once
I am bleeding out. ATM i have pressed my hand against the wound and hoping for a miracle.
We accumulating guys, the bull will come. Have faith
BTC may be in a mini bull market, but my alts are unfortunately far away from it.
It definitely has 2019 vibes, I would say it is still more positive than 2019 – but that might just be that there are a lot more people in crypto now I guess.
We still got a lot of time folks. Don’t lose hope. Keep accumulating as much as you can according to your financial situation (don’t overdo it). And then enjoy the bull run when time comes.
No bearish mood can.taje the bullishism from me!
I’ll just keep stacking 🙂
And the waiting is the hardest part…
I think there is gonna be a small bull run 1-2 months before the halving but we are gonna keep crabbing after that bull run
It’s wild to me that people are saying they waiting until it dips to 16K again to buy. These are fantastic prices to accumulate and once ETFs are approved I can see us never touching 30K again.
Cmon big money
Thirty weeks to halving, are thirty chances to buy BTC at discount!
Work, get your salary, DCA, repeat!
Just hold, sit back and relax. We have been in so many downs, you can sit the current one out and then we moon
Thanks for the copium, I was starting to doubt my DCAing
This crabbing…I suspect some ai boosted trading bot is taking out any excess cash. the barts are too perfect. every spike is getting sold down to baseline before the spike.
We’ve been here for a long winter now. We’ll make it till the halving and beyond too
So next year big crash in march?
I would like another year to continue to stack my coins.
Hold strong troops !
I’ve been accumulating stablecoins for the past year or so. Glad I’ve been on the right side this time around.
Gotta be honest (no shilling), but Benjamin Cowen deserves the praise he gets.
“Because I’m long…and I’m strong…..and it’s time to get the friction on” Sir Mix A Lot
I’m amazed at how much we hear about bull runs in this crypto space. I’ve been investing for over 30 years and I have never heard that term used so much as when I started investing in crypto. Here’s an idea. Invest in sound projects that appreciate over time and stop relying on bull runs to save you from your shitty decisions.
Please stop these mindles hopium posts. The halving won’t do shit for a while. We need something else than that. New investors and new money to come into the markets
If we’re gonna have to resemble the current situation to a historical period i think it should be 2020 post defisummer mini bear
Endurance is the perfect way to put it. We are close to the light at the end of the tunnel. The best thing for us is for prices to hold just a little longer until the bull run kicks off.
It repeats itself all the time
Do we really think we’ll get another bullrun with gains comparable to 2020-2021 without stimmy $$/PPP loans being pumped in?
The overall market is higher than before which makes exponential gains harder to come by and the economy is rough for many right now. My big fear is the bull run many are expecting won’t actually come.
Accumulating and expecting to be rich by 2025
Sticking to my DCA and holding until the halving. Can’t wait to see how things play out.
This mini bull market was weaker than the last one, though. The last one went from $3k Bitcoin to 14k Bitcoin. We only went from $15k to $30k this time.
Happy to wait a bit longer so I can keep accumulating! Looking forward to next year!
I believe a Bull run is coming!!