In my previous post, some people (correctly) pointed out that to accurately reflect the inflation-adjusted all-time-high of Bitcoin from 2021 in today's money, I should have taken into consideration the fact that the total supply of Bitcoin also went up in this same period. I looked into it and found an even more interesting (potentially big) fact:
Between 2017 and 2021, the total supply of Bitcoin increased faster than USD inflation:
- the total supply of Bitcoin went up by 12,8%, while
- USD inflation went up by 10,5%.
- This means that if we adjust for inflation AND the increased supply, the high of 20k$ in 2017 was “worth” 19,6k$ by 2021 (-1%).
Between 2021 and 2024, the total supply of Bitcoin increased slower than USD inflation:
- the total supply of Bitcoin went up by 3,8%, while
- USD inflation went up by 13,8%.
- This means that if we adjust for inflation AND the increased supply, the all-time-high of 69k$ in 2021 is now “worth” 75,7k$ (+9,7%).
Conclusion: this is first cycle during which the total supply of Bitcoin has increased slower than USD inflation, and we can reasonably expect this to be the norm from now on.
Obviously, it's also fair to point out that there is no real rationale behind the all-time-highs of Bitcoin (so none of this really means anything), and that USD is not the only currency in which Bitcoin is being traded. This analysis is just for fun, but still interesting to think about, I think.
***
I hope my math is correct, the calculations are based on these figures (sauce) plus the ones from my previous post:
- Total supply of Bitcoin on 30 December 2017:
16,771,956 - Total supply of Bitcoin on 31 December 2021:
18,915,556 - Total supply of Bitcoin on 16 February 2024:
19,629,263
This post scares me, wtf, inflation in 3 years is out of control, no wonder why buying groceries is so expensive now
You’re comparing apples to oranges.
If you’re going to compare supply you should do supply vs supply. But you are comparing supply vs inflation, these are two different things.
You need to either compare supply vs supply, or inflation vs inflation
We’ve seen waaaay more inflation than 9-10% in 3 years. Everything has gone up 50%.
Stop shilling about inflation, this ain’t Fox News.
What the heck is 75,7k ? Not sure I should take advice from someone whom can not place numbers or currency in a way that it is readable
Total supply of Bitcoin is 21M. Circulating supply is different depending on who you ask.
I don’t remember the number $69k ever being hit.
Inflation is so big rn. Btc does not increase, the usd just decreases lol
Inflation is a lot more than 10.5% lmao.
In the meantime nobody is realizing he is comparing inflation to max supply.
The us inflation is not measured by supply, but by prices of goods.
Bitcoin inflation is measured by max supply.
Bitcoin pros & cons with related info are in the collapsed comments below.
Doesn’t the price already takes into account the increasing circulating supply?
No real rationale?!?!
There’s a very good rationale behind the high price of $69K.
And it’s because 69 is….niceeeee
So what you’re saying is, we’re already at 2021’s bitcoin ATH
It was 69,420 on at least a few big exchanges. That is the most meme number it could have done, it was perfect.
If you’re adjusting for the total supply you should also adjust for total demand
What if the moon was your car, and Jupiter was your hairbrush?
Hard to say how much of that all time high was due to fraud though. E.g. we know there was rehypothecation of customer funds from fraudulent actors such as FTX.
Omg inflation is so high. I wish there was a digital currency with a finite supply, let’s say like 20 or 21 million and could be acquired by anyone in fractions so we could save on that knowing it will work like a store of value along with being medium of exchange, anyways. Anyways, what’s this group and what’s a crypto currency?
Its about more inflation than 9-10% in 3 years. Everything has gone up more then 60%.
We live in a society that is becoming expensive day by day. Lol
Is this supposed to mean something? The old peak of 69k surely encourage more long position until at least 69 or even 70+ because of market sentiment based on precedence. But what else does it do? Adjusting btc price for inflation to support your argument is just hillariously funny.
It’s scary, there’s still hope in BTC
Historically also any bull runs have tended to be 10x the previous run… well, for the market as a whole anyway.
USD buys 144 KSH today. It was around 90 a few years ago. So we are getting new Bitcoin highs here.
I bet people in a lot of other countries are seeing new highs too.
Basically 69k ATH is meaningless then…
and by the end of the year, btc price will be $100K