People who have been in crypto for more than one cycle, probably saw this drop coming from a mile away. It was textbook crypto volatility. They are also probably not worried about this dip, and maybe even relieved to see it. So far, everything continues to play out like clockwork.

This is Bitcoin being classic Bitcoin.

We always see these big dips, even during a bullrun. And after steep volatile rallies, you get equally volatile corrections.

It would have been really weird if after the 166% rally we just had, it would only do a 16% correction to somewhere above $60K.

https://preview.redd.it/ypivgrkh9uxc1.jpg?width=1122&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2aa8563dfb8e7c0813d92fedd91ce2fc02ebca0f

A correction closer to 30%, taking us to the low $50Ks, to maybe as much as the high $40Ks, seems like the most typical scenario here, and in line with what this market usually does.

Even in a best case scenario, you're looking at at least a 20%-25% correction, and testing something higher in the $50Ks. If you believe the market is too bullish to drop that much lower.

In a market this volatile, not many large traders are gonna settle for just 16%. They may not even settle for 20%.

They want to start accumulating at the volatility level they are betting on in this market.

Worried about this dip?

If anything, the OGs and old timers are a bit relieved about this dip.

It really proves once again that everything is playing out like clockwork for the time being. We got the usual correction after a rally, and even the cycles and post halving dip playing out like clockwork. This market is still predictable enough and not doing anything too weird, so we don't have to worry about “this time it's different” just yet.

This is yet another opportunity for whales to steal candy from a child, and take money from panicking hands as we drop into the $50Ks, from people for which this is likely their first rodeo, and may legit think that this is the final drop into a long bear market, and this first pre-halving rally was the final fomo mania run lol. Yes, I kid you not, there are actually people who believe that right now.

Just look at the graph of the 2017 bullrun. This is just the first of these big rallies and corrections.

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50 thoughts on “People who have been in crypto for more than one cycle, probably saw this drop coming from a mile away. It was textbook crypto volatility. They are also probably not worried about this dip, and maybe even relieved to see it. So far, everything continues to play out like clockwork.”

  1. More and more this run looks like it is going to be a 2017 type with nice slow burn that gets us as high as possible. Previously it was looking like a 2021 style quick fast run and that has limited upside potential. I predicted that people would lose their minds at the first real pullback and that was correct. I’m seeing insane takes upvoted like that the cycle top has already happened before the halving and that the next cycle top was only 5% above the previous ATH.

    https://colintalkscrypto.com/cbbi/

    https://charts.bitbo.io/monthly-rsi/

  4. Nobody knows what’s going to happen and posts like this are just being made because people have a hard time accepting that this could also be the beginning of a reversal back into a bear market.

  5. I have been in crypto for just over a cycle (4 years) and saw this retracement from months away, I sold at near top and still got faked out by the dead cat bounce and bought back in.

    Oh well, we ride the dip and keep DCA’ing

  6. Been bored as hell lately avoiding buying cause I wanted to be liquid for when this happened. You’re completely right.

  10. Let me check my Crystal ball…

    Rubs Crystal ball

    Yep, I see, the bottom will be in 51K BTC but afterwards straight to 80K.

  11. When you think it’ll go up, it’ll most certainly crash. With the halving being a known date, with hindsight the crash was predictable.

  12. Absolutely, this is nothing out of the ordinary. But don’t get fooled. Nobody knows where we’re going.

  13. I got lucky needed fiat. Sold everything but BTC , and I can buy back in at a discount !

  14. I’ve been trading bitcoin since 2016 and yes this was incredibly obvious.

    Honestly I didn’t expect it to come so soon but expect a rocky road for the next 6 months, then sudden explosions

    We’ve been saying it to the newcomers for months if not years. Predicting future prices from past behavior isn’t always perfect, but when the conditions appear to be exactly the same as they were before it’s the best thing you can do.

  16. IMO, crypto hasn’t been around long enough to assume there are “cycles” as in “an underlying law”. There are historic developments of the prices, that’s all.

  18. How about the drop that comes after the drop.. that came after the drop? That’s the one to spot.

  19. I keep seeing these posts but am not seeing anyone else worrying about dips. Whos your audience OP, the sub or yourself?

  22. I get a nice bonus in August. Can Bitcoin CEO keep price this low til then? I would like to buy more. Thanks!

  23. I’m not saying I’m a crypto veteran, but on September 8, 2023, I legit wrote this in my diary: “5/1/2024 will be hot and humid. I will have a headache. BTC will drop to 57K after hitting over 70K the month before. I will have a BBQ sandwich for lunch with my new girlfriend.” I got really close!

  24. Making crypto predictions is just astrology for men. I don’t know who originally said that but it’s spot on.

    No one knows what’s going to happen. Hold BTC for a relatively stable experience or buy alts for higher highs and lower lows. Either way, your investments are at the mercy of the gods…

  25. I am personally relieved, there was one final shake out right around the halving last cycle and I have been hording my payouts from the fiat farm.

    Funny how just running previous cycles’ playbook you can make money the ez way!

  26. When we pumped to all time highs before the halving I was panicking… I told all my friends if we don’t slow down then it’s going to ruin us… this feels right on track.

    Patience is our virtue

  29. The ETF’s were underwhelming and the new technology of this cycle sucks. It’s more meme coins and very few additions to Crypto that feel like innovation.
    I don’t see it crashing it, but the hype isn’t the same, because there is nothing really to hype. Those who are hyping something, also seem to be hyping from new ponzi type coins.

    A lot of the old guard projects that are not BTC or Eth, seem to be flops or are uninspiring.

  30. Yes. And when I said, it would happen I was downvoted by the shrill morons in this sub

  31. Yup everything is playing out like clockwork. $100k is just around the corner for the EOY 2021….be weird if we make it to 2022 without it at $100k

  32. I’ve been in since 2017. Not slightly relieved to see it.

    What gives you any confidence about your optimism? You mention zero fundamentals except pointing ti past price action.

    We’re looking at serious regulatory threat right now coupled with an ongoing lack of economically meaningful use cases (outside BTC).

    Past price action is an inane data point to use.

  33. “This market is still predictable” and behaves like ‘clockwork’.

    If it’s so ‘predictable’ then why not predict in advance and before instead of saying something is predictable afterwards and in hindsight.

  34. If you are using technical analysis as a sure bet, you will most likely get burned.

  35. I’m invested in crypto and a believer that it’s the future — but crypto communities are one gigantic echo chamber.

  37. Yeah, been in since 2014, don’t really care about short term fluctuations anymore.

    Crypto Twitter and this subreddit are insufferable worrying about a 15k drop. It’s got to the point where I hardly go on anymore because it’s just newcomers trying to make sense of the same pattern that’s been observed for 12 years now.

    People come to crypto thinking they won the lottery and are pissed when a highly speculative asset experiences volatility.

  38. Something that can be predicted is not volatility. Volatility is – by definition – the part of the price movement that cannot be predicted.

  39. Crypto bros after losing 20% of their holdings: everything going according to plan

    I hope yall have narcan on tap cuz you’re on the verge of overdosing on COPIUM

  43. If you could see it coming from a mile away, did you make any money off it? If it was so obvious, maybe post about it BEFORE it happens next time?

  44. Yes I’ve been here since $3k BTC and there’s a certain amount of schadenfreude watching others go thru that wild experience. Also feels lonely knowing that we’ll pump but absolutely no one believes me when I tell them irl. I’ll just have to be rich and lonely I suppose 🤷‍♂️

  46. People who have been in crypto for more than one cycle:
    “We chilling bro ( -___ – )”

  47. Repeat after me… “Capitulation”.
    It’ll be ok long as you aren’t using leverage.

  49. As someone who has been in bitcoin since 2012 ( I didn’t keep it) I have been buying and holding since 2020 and while I’m disappointed it’s slipping, not surprised or worried. I just check way less on the down weeks/months as it’s a lot less fun.

    What I’ve learned, is that altcoins are prob not good long term investments. Put too much into top 15 coins in 2021 only a few are in the green. Just hanging in there with them but not buying more in case one hits.

    Crypto is about 25% of my investments, and in that it is about 50% btc 20% xrp 15%eth 15%alts

    At this point I’m done with xrp, as well as the rest of the alts. have enough that if it wins and gets to $10 I’m probably out but again been holding too long and don’t need the cash at the moment so won’t sell. I’m putting about 10% of my overall investments into bitcoin these days

  50. I stuck a buy order in for $58,011 on 16th April and yesterday my patience paid off.

    I don’t DCA in because I just don’t.

    I tend to build up a bank of funds in my business account and think “Yeah, that’s worth drawing down and paying taxes on”

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