Looking back: There were actually some indicators that were pretty good at predicting this bear market bottom and they have always been one of the more accurate ones.

I know, I know that we do not really like to talk about Technical Analysis or any other methods to predict prices, but still bear with me as the upcoming indicators I will present are not to predict any price, but just predict the rough area of a certain market event. Which is a lot easier and more reliable and it is basically the same like us saying that there is a lot of fear/euphoria right now so it must be the bottom/top.

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Cost Basis Chart

The first indicator that was able to predict the bottom is actually one of the best ones. The Cost Basis indicators shows that there is a bottom territory as long as the average price of short-term holders is below the average price of the long-term holders. Which makes sense as now long-term holders are less likely to sell.

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Realized Profits and Losses Chart

Here we can see the realized profits and losses for BTC and it would obviously just make sense if during a bear market we have the most realized losses and that is exactly what happened during each bottom in Bitcoins history.

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MVRV Z indicator Chart

Now we have the more technical indicator of the MVR-Z score, which you can basically think of as an indicator that gives you the “value-zone“ BTC is moving at right now. During a bottom-formation it is usually the “deep value“ zone, which were also at this time.

So here were just some example of how some indicators that are meant for the longer-time frame and not just some dubious price predictions, can actually prove to be right, as nearly all of them try to excerpt the fear humans must be feeling right now in the market, high fear then results in the bottom.

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49 thoughts on “Looking back: There were actually some indicators that were pretty good at predicting this bear market bottom and they have always been one of the more accurate ones.”

  3. What I’ve learned is the more lines and colours there are on a chart the more accurate it is

  4. Watch OP jinx the market with this post and see a new bottom…

    The inverse r/cryptocurrency never fails!

  5. The thing is the next time we have a bear market 99% of us will still be too scared to rely on these indicators

  7. Yeah, easy to say when you look at it months after. But when you’re in the middle if the bear market, things are not that clear. FUD can blur your mind and thoughts, and not everyone is an expert trader.

  8. Those indicators make my eyes hurt. The only thing I know about Crypto is to dca and wait. I guess I’m a degen

  9. As they say, hindsight is 20/20. There are a lot of other signs that probably weren’t accurate, but would have if the bottom had been different.

  10. Of course, the most accurate indicator is my portfolio. If I sell, the market rises and if I buy the market crashes.

  11. At least according to past cycles it looks like this accumulation period could last about a year… which actually would line up decent with BTC’s halfing. Unless some crazy white swan event happens with the global economy I’m reserving my hopium until then.

  15. Honestly I don’t even care whether we passed the bottom or not. We had a chance to buy at absolute bargain prices and I’ll be happy with whatever happens next.

  16. This only shows we are “In” a bottom formation, not that it is over! (its over around 5-8 months from now, trust me on this one).

  19. The problem with these is that there are a ton of predictors, several of them wrong

    Doesn’t really do much good to look in hindsight and cherry pick the ones that were right, it doesn’t necessarily mean they will be right again in the future

  20. Unfortunately these indicators are only indicators after the fact, until then it could be argued either way. In any case even with the bullish of flags, my portfolio still falls

  21. Classic r/cc… Most of the indicators flashed the bottom signal and comments were “blah blah recession, rate hikes, war blah blah this time it’s different”. Now the same users say “Hindsight is 10/10”, what a surprise. Who would have thought that the bottom is actually bearish and makes you not want to buy, buying feels stupid. People unironically wait for the US president or FOMC head to go on stage and declare that the bear market is over. Okay, it might not be the definitive bottom, but come on… 20-15k was a great deal compared to 60k nevertheless.

  22. I feel like looking back at the last 2 years hindsight will allow me to pick indicators that if looking forward correctly from that particular time I coulda/shoulda/woulda bought something at the right price and be rich today, or maybe tomorrow.

  26. Every bear market there is a different indicator that worked in hindsight while any other failed. And when you use that one the next bear it’s gonna fail while others work. Happened exactly like this multiple times in the past gif

    Timing the bottom is a gamble anyway. Accumulating around it is the key

  30. I think these sort of indicators make sense while crypto lacks much real world Utility. I would expect these indicators to break when actual usage starts to impact price. Currently the price isn’t based on much of anything besides emotion.

  33. Bear keeps going strong.

    All the posts on here about bull runs and 100 thousand dollar bitcoins are extremely annoying.

  34. Two comments:

    1. I was buying between $15k and $25k
    2. Based on the indicators, it’s still a good time to buy

  35. I have never seen so much useless nonsense being posted by a user on the daily and then coming In with post-hoc analysis like he predicted it. Not hard to do when you post about BTC on the daily .

    TLDR; I like TA, I talk about market moves after the fact. And if you check my comments, I dump out a post about BTC at least every two days.

    Must be a blast a parties.

  37. Been riding the waves since 2017 and the main indicator I listen to is absolute fear and “crypto is dead”. Once that starts flying around, I buy, immediately.

  39. The most reliable one was the media outlets writing about how crypto/btc is going to shit and gonna probably die lol. Also, there were folks here predicting btc to 10k so we can count inverse r/cc as well hhaha

  45. I believe the spot ETFs will forever change things, so much so that historic trends are far less reliable.

    Anyone following the metals market closely will agree.

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