I know, I know that we do not really like to talk about Technical Analysis or any other methods to predict prices, but still bear with me as the upcoming indicators I will present are not to predict any price, but just predict the rough area of a certain market event. Which is a lot easier and more reliable and it is basically the same like us saying that there is a lot of fear/euphoria right now so it must be the bottom/top.
Cost Basis Chart
The first indicator that was able to predict the bottom is actually one of the best ones. The Cost Basis indicators shows that there is a bottom territory as long as the average price of short-term holders is below the average price of the long-term holders. Which makes sense as now long-term holders are less likely to sell.
Realized Profits and Losses Chart
Here we can see the realized profits and losses for BTC and it would obviously just make sense if during a bear market we have the most realized losses and that is exactly what happened during each bottom in Bitcoins history.
MVRV Z indicator Chart
Now we have the more technical indicator of the MVR-Z score, which you can basically think of as an indicator that gives you the “value-zone“ BTC is moving at right now. During a bottom-formation it is usually the “deep value“ zone, which were also at this time.
So here were just some example of how some indicators that are meant for the longer-time frame and not just some dubious price predictions, can actually prove to be right, as nearly all of them try to excerpt the fear humans must be feeling right now in the market, high fear then results in the bottom.