Is this bear market different or not? The story is different (inflation, banking crisis, war) yet the price action mirrors past cycles and suggests that we are just repeating history and should see a decent 2023 and an amazing 2024

With the inflation, rate hikes, and bank troubles we are seeing, it feels like unchartered territory for crypto. In a sense the current situation feels more similar to 2007/2008, where we saw a great financial crisis. During that time, we saw a housing bubble and bank crisis, similar to now. If true, we have no idea how crypto will react and if we see a further dip due to a major recession, becuase Bitcoin was only invented as a response to those times.

Yet if we ignore the world events for a bit, the price action on the chart tells us that we are still doing a very similar if not near identical thing as we did in the previous Bitcoin cycles. Let me show what I mean.

(1) The third year of Bitcoin's four year cycle (i.e., 2017, 2020, 2023) is a green year in which we bounce off of key support. The same thing is happening now! If history repeats, 2024 should be a great year where we get close to or break ATH.

Source: Rektcapital

(2) Each bear market, we move down to key support, consolidate there for a few months, and then break the trend line to continue moving up. That is happening again too! We have broken the trend line with volume, like we did in prior cycles.

Source: Rektcapital

(3) Even from a technical perspective, history is very much repeating. Every cycle Bitcoin breaks below the 20 moving average on the monthly. Once it breaks that moving average, crypto is off to the races. Around that time, RSI crosses upwards and the MACD starts to cross and turn green. Yep, same thing happening again now.

Source: Titan of Crypto

There's actually many of these charts that suggest that history is simply repeating itself, even though the narrative is different now. From a price action point of view, there is plenty of hopium. Even the timing is very similar, where it took:

2013: 59 weeks from all time high to bottom
2018: 52 weeks from all time high to bottom
2022: 54 weeks since all time high to bottom

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50 thoughts on “Is this bear market different or not? The story is different (inflation, banking crisis, war) yet the price action mirrors past cycles and suggests that we are just repeating history and should see a decent 2023 and an amazing 2024”

  1. So you know, Ive mentally prepared for all the TA is astrology jokes by having a few beers.

    Hope you enjoy a bit of hopium. History does not repeat but it often rhymes.

  2. My helmet is strapped and booty puckered.
    I’m expecting a red May in to June and bull running after that. We’ll see!

  3. Who is going to buy ATH BTC if they lost a lot of money due to their banks failing? The macro situation is a great challenge

  4. Time will tell. If history repeats itself the economy will also take a dump. Previous times most economic pain is felt AFTER the fed pivot…and all signs point to the pivot being near.

  5. Unfortunately atm it’s not a typical bear market, it’s almost an international financial/economic crisis. The whole world is waiting to see what’s going to happen, and we might be thrown into survival mode at some point

  6. This isn’t bear it’s accumulation that will chop out 90% of the traders and make others to forget about crypto,then we moon next year

  7. I think we got blinded into the narrative that Bitcoin would always follow stocks and macros, because it entered its cyclical bear phase right around the time stocks tanked and macros created a global financial crisis.

    But actually, Bitcoin crashed and entered its bear market months before all that.

    In fact, people tend to forget that Bitcoin entered the bear market while stocks were still rallying and reaching new ATHs.

    It was a coincidental correlation, not a causation that gave us higher correlation to stocks since 2021.

    But we can now see this more clearly.

    Stocks are having a lot of volatility these past months, and we keep seeing stocks tank, while at the same time more macro alarms, but yet Bitcoin has ignored it all, and has had a multi-months rally.

    It seems that its cycles are much stronger than stocks or macros.

  8. Sometimes I feel like people try to jam on data just to fit a narrative

    We’re also just scratching the surface of a recession

  9. What about crystal ball analysis. What’s your crystal ball analysis?

  10. IMO 2024 will be massive

    Also there’s the FED tightening which I think ends this year. So along with elections and the other factors on OP we should get a healthy bull run soon.

  11. For the sake of everyone’s bags I hope this pattern will continue at least until 2024/2025 but I’m certain at some point these patterns will stop repeating and new ones will emerge

  12. The problem with inflation is that you can’t escape it: people will indeed have less money to invest. Charts can’t show this and the charts above can’t include this information because they are historical data without high inflation or recession.

  13. HODL strong, my fellow crypto enthusiasts. We’ll ride out this bear market together and come out stronger on the other side.

  14. With all that is going on in the world right now with the war in Ukraine and a potential WW3…..yes this bear market is different for sure. In past bears world events were not nearly as chaotic as the ones we are experiencing now. Depending on how things unfold with the war in Ukraine and other things this bear market could last awhile.

  15. The way I understand this is that BTC so far lived through times when stock market was on a bull run since the depths of 2008 crisis.

    When stock market rose, BTC rose as well. When stock market paused then BTC paused as well. This means that precondition for BTC to hit new ATH is for stock market to hit new ATH.

    However, I doubt that stock market is going to reach new ATH, in fact, I believe it’s going on a prolonged bear period, so BTC is not going to hit new ATH either. But I believe we are going to see an altcoin season before it all crumbles down

  16. I’m still kind of sticking to these charts and the four year cycle. It’s why I think this will be a 15k to 30k year (moving between those levels). Of course it could be wrong, but it gives some comfort to know we’re following a pattern

  17. Hmm assuming the growth is infinite, yes. But we never know which cycle will be the one to reach the real ATH. I stay hopeful with a sprinkle of doubt:)

  18. I’m amazed people still forget crypto isn’t correlated to almost any TradFi asset, the correlation to QQQ was a recent one, it barely became a thing on 2021.

    On an historical scale, crypto has been inversely correlated to the DXY, and more recently (as in recent weeks) it has shown a correlation to gold.

    I’d say people have caught on about what bitcoin is, and since bitcoin is the main driver for the whole crypto market everything follows.

    A bank fails? Flock into crypto. The economy tanks? Into crypto I said.

  19. With everything going on it’s definitely pushed BTC lower with everything else but we are still on track for the cycle so nothing to worry about

  20. It’s exceptionally different. First of all I would argue that all three of your points are invalid because there’s no such thing as a bitcoin/crypto cycle.

    Since 2016 the graphs for BTC and SPX have been nearly identical. An uptrend in BTC always corresponds to an uptrend in the general market, and a downtrend in BTC always corresponds to a downtrend in the general market. Yes they happen at different scales since crypto is more volatile, but the graphs completely mirror each other.

    Halvings, the 4-year cycle are all bullshit. BTC mirrors the overall stock market, end of story. All this talk about bitcoin cycles is just confirmation bias and clickbait for crypto influencers.

    However since early 2023 the graphs have started to diverge. Crypto has been on a hot tear while the overall economy is on the verge of collapse. The reason is obvious: lack of faith in the stability of the global financial system in general, and the banking system specifically. i.e. – The entire reason BTC was invented in the first place.

    So yes, things have been very different throughout 2023. Will it hold? If I knew that I would be a very wealthy man.

  21. I’m optimistic and hoping that things get better but expecting them to get worse before they do

  22. The different macro scenario, specially the higher interest rates, are a real structural change that could cause this bear market to be much different than the previous ones. But the price action till now suggest otherwise. Time will tell.

  23. 4 years ago btc went up then down. This means right now btc will go up after it just went down.

  24. Bitcoin definitely follows cycles. Each cycle is unique, but they all share characteristics.

  25. Apart from extremely general directions in movement in very loose timeframes, macro trends usually don’t play out. Just ask any of the roughly 80% of us that was expecting a 250-350k BTC based on the gains of the previous bull market, or the people who were expecting a sub-10k BTC a year or so ago based on the previous bear market. Copy/pasting the previous cycle literally never works out that way.

    It’ll go up for a while… and then it’ll go down for a while. That’s about the only reliable macro trend.

  26. Whether you like ta or not I appreciate the effort put into this post. Thank you.

  27. Its really different because this sub is more mature.

    But banks failing on a weekly basis, we haven’t see it since BTC was invented.

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