With the inflation, rate hikes, and bank troubles we are seeing, it feels like unchartered territory for crypto. In a sense the current situation feels more similar to 2007/2008, where we saw a great financial crisis. During that time, we saw a housing bubble and bank crisis, similar to now. If true, we have no idea how crypto will react and if we see a further dip due to a major recession, becuase Bitcoin was only invented as a response to those times.
Yet if we ignore the world events for a bit, the price action on the chart tells us that we are still doing a very similar if not near identical thing as we did in the previous Bitcoin cycles. Let me show what I mean.
(1) The third year of Bitcoin's four year cycle (i.e., 2017, 2020, 2023) is a green year in which we bounce off of key support. The same thing is happening now! If history repeats, 2024 should be a great year where we get close to or break ATH.
(2) Each bear market, we move down to key support, consolidate there for a few months, and then break the trend line to continue moving up. That is happening again too! We have broken the trend line with volume, like we did in prior cycles.
(3) Even from a technical perspective, history is very much repeating. Every cycle Bitcoin breaks below the 20 moving average on the monthly. Once it breaks that moving average, crypto is off to the races. Around that time, RSI crosses upwards and the MACD starts to cross and turn green. Yep, same thing happening again now.
Source: Titan of Crypto
There's actually many of these charts that suggest that history is simply repeating itself, even though the narrative is different now. From a price action point of view, there is plenty of hopium. Even the timing is very similar, where it took:
2013: 59 weeks from all time high to bottom
2018: 52 weeks from all time high to bottom
2022: 54 weeks since all time high to bottom