Hi
If you've never experienced a Bitcoin halving before, or if you have but are unsure what to expect, I've done a bit of research based on the last halvings. Here's what i have.
The halving occurs every four years, cutting the reward for mining new blocks in half. The next halving will reduce rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC.
Historical Price Impacts:
- 2012 Halving: Bitcoin's price surged approximately 9308% in 13 months.
- 2016 Halving: Saw a 2861% increase over 17 months.
- 2020 Halving: Resulted in a 620% increase in 11 months.
Based on some napkin math the BTC can reach a 162% price increase post-halving, with the peak expected around 420 days (14 months).
inb4 no one knows shit about anything. It's a probability game.
What's your take.
here's the article and i also made a video version you can watch.
And don’t stare directly at Bitcoin while it’s halving.
Can’t see the article.
Your napkin math 🧮 seems legit
How long after each peak until it hits a low before climbing again?
I looked at some charts and it seems like each ATH is followed by a CryptoWinter where the price drops to 33%, 25% or even 20% of the last ATH.
For example in 2012, 2016 and 2020 how long did it take to go to it’s lowest before climbing again?
The issue for me is the ETF provides a wrinkle that has not been seen before. Therefore, while I agree with your prognosis based on historical facts. I do think this halving will see see an unprecedented movement exaggerating your maths.
13, 17. 11 months, why not go for all the primes to be totally consistent.
162% would be pretty sad.
Will probably crash at halving and the slowly rise to 350k.
The game is much simpler than that. I dont believe that the halving itself is responsible for price surging, but the coordinated buying of the masses that eventually leading to whale taking profits and the masses panic selling.
This halving has come to scare me… supply gets sliced, but we are almost at 94% of btc in circulation already which means there aren’t too many btc left anyways. What if people’s interest on btc remains same or declines? Would that lead to miners not profiting anymore and start leaving?
After the tragedy in Moscow I have come to believe we are in the brinks of something big happening. When sh!t hits the fence people return to traditional store of value, like gold , which is something you can touch and trade without the need for electricity-smartphone-network.