Crypto Investors: See SOLANA Beneath the Hood. Bad Tech & Bad Investment

TUE MARCH 19: Only 7 of Solana's last 50 transactions finalized

https://preview.redd.it/q9vxf2of1apc1.png?width=919&format=png&auto=webp&s=d2ef4da3ee40310d4c52a26632aaede86f0c5a37

See for yourself

If this were Ethereum, the outrage would be public, and loud. Congestion and delays mount. This chain redlines daily.

If you have doubts as to the authenticity of these screen caps, I invite you to see for yourself at solanabeach.io/transactions

Solana Foundation's Bad Bet

Solana aimed to scoop Ethereum users and capitalize on the Merge's ship delay and high fees. Its not working.

Solana:

  • Has gone down 11 times in 2 years
  • Sol coin has 21% annualized inflation
  • Inflated 70% since January 2021 (269.1M to 445M)
  • Smart contracts are closed source (no access to contract code like Etherscan)
  • DeFi is also closed source (so its actually CeFi)
  • Despite high txn numbers, Solana earns a fraction of Ethereum's revenue (2023: ETH~$2B vs SOL~$11M)

Solana's normalized outtages; lost count

Solana's Debasement Strategy

21.47% annual inflation

Chart captures Solana's 69% inflation over 3-year period

Solana #1 by issuance rate percentage

775 Million SOL by 2032

Solana Foundation has scheduled SOL's issuance schedule through 2032. By that time, SOL will circulate 775 Million coins.

775 Million SOL by 2032

But what about the schedule? And what does a year mean?

https://preview.redd.it/ci38bebvw7pc1.png?width=1312&format=png&auto=webp&s=624b2fbd09b15be10678447e24a7c25c87bc89f8

Solana's annual inflation rate is currently 5.515% and will decrease by 15% every year.

On Planet Sol, a year spans 180 epochs. 1 epoch = 2.5+ days. Epoch years range 450 to 630 Earth days. See the green highlighted section above. By expanding the definition of a year, you give yourself wide margin to reach the calculations you require. All just by changing the meaning of year.

The yellow highlighted area tells the truth.

https://preview.redd.it/rf3n3v4mu7pc1.png?width=932&format=png&auto=webp&s=3515cd5dad818e57070c4b02d613e52c77e8d4d4

Hodlers Yield

Non-Stakers pay Stakers

Dig deep and see the mechanism at work. The network is kept afloat by non-staking SOL holders. The network extracts maximum value through systematic daily issuance of new SOL. Solana shields validators and stakers from inflation by awarding them all new issuance. 50% of fees go to validators. That's why the lavender line is on the top-side. The rest is covered by non-stakers. This ensures that non-stakers bear disproportionate inflation exposure. Its also necessary because the fees collected aren't enough. Non-Stakers pay Stakers and effectively pay to keep the network running.

Its no different than the Government paying debts by printing money. They clear their debt but we get hit with the inflationary after-effect. Solana does this to non-stakers.

Keep your money in BTC or ETH. Long term, SOL is a terrible investment choice.

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50 thoughts on “Crypto Investors: See SOLANA Beneath the Hood. Bad Tech & Bad Investment”

  1. We’ll see. My favorite thing about Solana is how hard the haters try to convince you that they’re right. Fun times!

  2. Now I understand why I wasn’t able to send SOL from my ledger to Coinbase this morning. The transaction went finally through, but only after 4 failed attempts and a lot of cursing.

  3. I appreciate a post like this. I’ve heard pieces here and there that have made me have doubts about Solana. It’s good to see some facts and a well thought out argument.

  4. Thanks for sharing. Now I’m even more confident we’ll see SOL at $1000 in this cycle.

  5. OP, right now, during this bull run there’s not even a distant second. Solana has all the volume and all the giant new meme tokens are coming from Solana. The issues you are bringing up are not immediate issues and what I mean is they haven’t stopped the volume and meme success and they won’t prevent continued immediate success.

    You can scream all you want about your long term issues but that isn’t stopping those that want to make money now from using Solana.

  6. Gonna disagree with you here bud.

    Solana has the best UX in crypto and that’s all 90% of people in crypto really care about. And for bringing non-crypto people in, that’s all anyone is going to give a shit about.

    EVM UX has always been bad and hasn’t improved much. Monad might be the only EVM-related chain that will be able to compete with Solana long-term.

    Maybe Solana will gradually lose market share to other ecosystems in later cycles, but it’s poised to dominate this cycle, no question. For the next 12-18 months, I am a Solana maxi for sure.

  7. Converted all my hnt I mined to sol.
    So that was the wrong thing to do?

  8. But then I invest into Algo, and loose money. I now follow hype and learnt that technology != price action. Narrative is the thing to follow

  9. This seasons ETH killer

    • 20%+ inflation versus 1% deflation
    • worse tech performance
    • primarily used to launch meme coins

    I’m sold

  10. Should’ve bought more when it was $8 so I could better enjoy this sad sad copium sol-hate.

    Still very much enjoying this “check price, price good” cycle. Waiting game has paid off just fine for me.

  11. This sub really just hates Sol. We get it, it’s been a bad investment since it was $2.

  12. this post has been up an hour and the comments in here are dumb as dogshit. can one of you fuckin sol maxis make a fucking point other than ‘muh gains tho’ please? im not anti sol by any means but op has a fuckin point at least
    to think this will get worse when moon distributions start omg

  13. You forgot about firedance.

    I’ll take a 10x in less than a year any day.

  14. But my NFT on ethereum costs me $50 in gas to buy right now. Does eth work?

    “HeREs a RaNdOM sCrEEnShOt WiTh nO cOnTeXt”

  15. I used to think these anti-Solana posts were funny but now they just seem kinda sad.

  16. Honestly I think this community seems to massively underestimates the fact that people will continue to be drawn to SOL because of the gambling and meme coins, and most of those people wont have a clue or care to learn about ‘under the hood’ they will just want to take a put on the next bull runs big meme coins. Look at what happened with doge and just picture how many people will want to emulate that through SOL in the next year or so.

    There’s a lot of people in here butt hurt that SOL keeps going up when it ‘shouldn’t’. It’s pretty salty nonsense. I don’t think it lasts, but I can see it continuing to perform as it has.

  17. Solana is the only Blockchain that I can actually bare to interact with as a user. A failed transaction that costs me nothing once in a blue moon is no issue to me because 99.9% of the time it does exactly what I want it to.

  18. We are in a world that spikes doge and shib. None of the FUD matters if you’re talking about this. It’s all part of the hype rotation.

  19. How do you know the transactions failed due to network? There are millions of bots trading and the transaction failling can be caused by several factors: not enough balance, fees, more people paying premium to get order filled faster then you and so on

    Also with solana i think its more about the fees and betting on future if you are first time user of ETH you will feel the pain of fees and you learn about L2 after you just lost 100$ to fees

  20. Damn, blew my fucking mind. Here I was thinking my investment that’s up 400% was a good investment. I can’t believe it’s actually a bad investment

  21. One thing I’ve learnt with Solana as an investment, is don’t ever, ever, listen to this sub.

  22. Solana will pump because it’s cheaper to do trading in Solana compare with Etherium. It is just too expensive to buy eth tokens.

  23. All of your points are valid except the last one. It should be no surprise that ETH earns more when people are paying 10s of thousands in gas versus cents on SOL

  24. Hey OP I feel your pain. I too dumped my SOL bags after the FTX shenanigans 🙁

  25. I would rather have to try a few times to get my transaction through than pay 25$ gas during very busy times.

  26. Solana was built for investors, the supply was minted and given to investors and the nodes are run by the investors. Solana is utter garbage and should be avoided at all cost.

    Eventually people will figure this out, but at the moment they have fostered the only projects that will pump their price at this point in time. Similar to how Binance Chain operates as well. Private companies profiting off volume on their “decentralized” chain from scam coins.

  27. As someone who has held a lot of ethereum (and I do mean a lot) in the past. I’ll never go back there again. The fees are criminal… even if you win, you lose. It was a landmark token as the first to introduce new functionality to the blockchain, but it gouges it’s own user base.

    If it’s not SOL or ADA, something is going to come along to replace it. Even the ethereum evangelists are going to realise they’re being f*cked over at some point.

  28. You confuse shitcoins functionality per its stated design goals with the price action.

    People dont buy shitcoins to build an important network. They buy it so they can sell it for more.

    Thats all.

    Thats it.

    Price go up. Coin=good. Project=good.
    Price not go up. Coin=bad. Project=bad.

    I learned this lesson 2 cycles ago.

    The price action determines how good the project is, but we SHOULD base the price action on how good the project is.

    Learn this and youll be saved from frustration and can trade successfully.

  29. Soon i have to change my name to SOLwhale cause no matter how stable n all eth is the cost of a transaction and how fast it normally is make me wonder. Yeye i know we got many l2 now but the hassle to even use those l2 chains to a transaction that is on eth mainnet u need to be a dev. People want simplicity

  30. Can still taste the salt in the sub.

    Don’t worry I know VCs are just waiting to dump on me like at 20 and 50 and 80 and you get the picture . ..

  31. Yeah if you’re talking about what’s beneath the surface SOL is terrible and devs are beyond shady. BTC and ETH are not what you should buy if you care about that though. Terrible energy efficiency for BTC and non-functional gas fees for ETH. If you care about tech and non-shady development you buy things like XLM and VET that already experience real world use like me.  Prices on this type of currency have gone nowhere. So in terms of investment they are terrible. Currencies with bad tech and devs actually have prices go up quite a lot. In the end no one cares about the tech anymore and neither do you. This is just another BTC/ETH maxi post on why you shouldn’t buy any other coin.

  32. Solana people are not very transparent about SOL’s inflation rate and mechanics. It’s currently inflating to shit. 70% added supply from Jan 2021.

  33. The blockchain that becomes “mainstream” is whatever has the best UX and lowest fees to use combined. Other fundamentals and the actual quality of the tech do not matter, surely we have learned this by now 😆

  34. Thank you for writing this. I’ve been on Base chain since the start of the cycle and was beginning to wonder if the entire party was going to happen on Solana. Sounds like Solana is no different than gambling on a site that uses a SQL database.

  35. Solana’s architecture has been shown to be extremely insecure:

    “Halting the Solana Blockchain with Epsilon Stake”

    >Solana is a blockchain protocol that has gained significant attention in the cryptocurrency community. This work examines Solana’s consensus protocol and its reference implementation. In this paper we try to get an understanding of the Solana protocol. However, this is not so easy because the publicly available resources are insufficient to specify the details of the protocol. Moreover, the implementation has deviated in undocumented ways from the available protocol design description. Thus the consensus rules and their implied security properties remain unclear. We evaluate a number of experimental scenarios in a local Solana testnet. These tests seem to confirm our basic understanding that Solana does not fully achieve consensus. In this paper we show how a single malicious validator, once elected as leader, might be able to halt the Solana blockchain. We also observe some inconsistent behavior, which is not readily explained by any of the consensus rules we are aware of.

    thread

    This would be completely irrelevant if Solana used Ethereum as its consensus protocol, and exclusively handled execution as an L2. A strong argument can be made that any alt-L1 would is better off as Ethereum L2 execution environment.

    By relying on Ethereum’s PoS consensus algorithm, which is the world’s most rigorously tested, projects can avoid:

    1. The complexities of creating a new consensus algorithm, and
    2. The challenges of maintaining a highly decentralized and collateralized consensus network, as well as establishing bridges to other chains.

    This approach allows projects to focus exclusively on adding value through the introduction of new execution technologies.

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