$138k is an acceptable next peak for bitcoin, here is why

One sure fact about Bitcoin is that however deep it has crashed, it always bounces back to new heights that surprise most. After one of its worst crashes, it has bounced back and speculators and enthusiasts are all asking what the next ceiling is gonna be. Among the many speculations that have made rounds, the $138k one is one of the most convincing, at least to me.

I read this analysis which suggests that based on past recoveries, we could anticipate a peak of $138k. Here's the breakdown: from the initial peak of $1,132 to the second peak of $19,141 represented approximately a 16x increase. Then, from the second peak of $19,141 to the fourth peak of $69,000 (as the third and fourth peaks were close), there was about a 3.6x increase. The trend indicates diminishing returns, which is expected as Bitcoin transitions into a 'mega cap'.

If we extrapolate this pattern, we might anticipate a 1x increase from the previous peak. Therefore, we're potentially looking at $69k x 2 = $138k.

I'm interested to hear your thoughts on this analysis.

25 thoughts on “$138k is an acceptable next peak for bitcoin, here is why”

  1. “If we extrapolate this pattern” … yeah but we shouldn’t lol. Sure it might go to 138k it might to to 500k or it might go to 90k who knows, you don’t and I don’t let’s not make unqualified guesses like this.

  2. Way too low. Try triple that, imo. The 69k peak was significantly affected by ftx and Luna rugpulls, and would have been much higher.

  3. if you take out a loan of 10,000 USDT (25% APR) and buy BTC at 70K for it and sell at 138 in four weeks, you’d made 9.700 gross profit in a month or nearly 100%. subtract the $208 interest and you are a rich man.

  4. It’s a good theory, however… We’ve broken the halving-pump cyclic trend. New ATH pre-halving is unheard of. We are truly in uncharted territory now. I’m not convinced that we should expect the pattern of previous halving cycles to repeat.

    … Which is a bummer because I was really looking forward to becoming a billionaire just by using the Pi Cycle indicator lol (/s)

    ETA: many people seem to think that my statement above means I’m bearish on BTC. This couldn’t be further from the truth. With the ETF, more exposure, extreme FOMO, retail investment, more altcoin utility, etc, all JUST IN TIME for the halving, this is only the beginning for what I believe will be an absolutely astounding growth period for BTC. It’s still a buy, I just won’t be expecting the top to be somewhat predicted from the Golden Cross delay as I did previously.

  5. That’s 100% from current price.

    You never tell what happens in the crypto space. I’ve also seen a prediction of 150k and 200k respectively.

    Ofcus, as long as you keep DCAing out of your assets at these highs, nothing to lose.

    Would be shifting into lowcaps like DIA. 50m marketcap and still about 20x to ATH.

  6. all these people trying to make predictions based on models that are breaking by the day. Lots of folks gonna get left in the dust on this one.

  7. Yeah the ETFs are going to take everyone’s TA price models and shove it up their butts imo. I say this as someone who used TA to find the bottom this cycle.

    I am not paying attention to past results here at all.

    I will use RSI and momentum based models but nothing to do with previous price action

    That train is already off the rails.

  8. Look, we’re all adults here. We know how this works. We understand the double meaning of numbers.

    The next major resistance after 69 will be at 420.

  9. O thought we would get 60k when a lot of people were expecting 100k. I sold my initial investment at 63, so now I have house money

    I expect 200k this time, and I am uncertain that the big after dip will occur (I was also uncertain last time and didn’t take advantage of it and sell more).

    It is all guessing so long as you are protected from your own pattern, making guesses it doesn’t really matter.

  10. When did it become so popular to write “here is why” at the end of everything instead of without or with “here’s why” at the beginning of the sentence.

  11. Too low IMO, but time will tell. I think it will peak between 220-280k before settling at 120-160k. So many variables have changed with no historical comparisons that would accurately help predict, but I think this will be a very very nice bull market.

  12. once whales try to cash out, the worthless “tether” backing it wont suffice and the fees to cash out will be crazy

  13. Past results are not indicative of future results. Brrrrr goes the printer and gobble gobble goes the ETF turkeys.

  14. There’s 0 btc for them to buy over the counter…. it’s all gone. I’m reading people saying 100k will be tough lol how? They can only buy more through us… exchanges until those minors start to sell. On top of that I’ve read plenty of articles saying it takes months for all this etf money to affect the price. 150-250k are I think without a pandemic or ww3… easy.

  15. 138k this cycle seems right fomo will drive it to 150k then back down .. load up now for easy gains .. it’ll be a good Christmas after all lol

  16. Last cycle…. We never go lower than the previous ATH. We should expect a parabolic pump to 100k and beyond. And then we get a double top?!! Expect the unexpected…

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