[Daily Discussion] – Tuesday, June 28, 2022

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[Daily Discussion] - Tuesday, June 28, 2022

18 thoughts on “[Daily Discussion] – Tuesday, June 28, 2022”

  1. My daily, β€˜the bottom is in post’, since the bottom on the 18th of June

  2. Introductory speech from ECB President Lagarde on the ECB forum live right now. Can also read whole speech here. Next few hours panels with some more ECB members.

    Then tomorrow 13:00 UTC a panel with both Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde and BoE Gov Bailey. I think this last panel is mostly worth watching to get insight what the central bankers are thinking.

    edit: summary is probably Lagarde reaffirms intention to raise by 25bps in July (ECB has 3 rates, currently at -0.50, 0.00 and 0.25) and in September “larger increment if needed”. Overall EU/ECB doesn’t seem to affect BTC much anyway, unlike US/Fed.

  3. I know it’s obvious, but the 200W MA is the four-year (full cycle) average, and has acted as support in previous winters. Currently 21676.

    For those who remember, the old ‘tx model’ is at 7700.

  4. The silence here goes to show the ‘little guy’ is little for a reason: he has no heart and is only a fair-weather friend. You only hear from him when he’s squealing in pain or pleasure. He’s justifiably little and insignificant – he’s stupid.

  5. Just out of interest and considering the way Bitcoin works, is it possible for the rest of the world to sanction a country by cutting them off from the global internet? I mean could the internet get truly Balkanised and what might that mean for Bitcoin?

  6. People (not in here I hope) in the tradfi markets are acting like the recent dead cat bounce means the worst is passed us and these markets must be still be strong. Nope, Michael Burry posted a really informative graph showing something like 17 out of the last 20 biggest up days were bounces during steep declines in the long-term. I’d link it but I don’t have twitter, and they only allow you to view the 3 most recent tweets from a user.

    edit: the only way to know when you’ve bottomed out, bitcoin or legacy markets, is to give it enough time to tell. Of course I’ll still be calling the bottom all the way down, it’s fun!

  7. Oof. The S&P approaching 4000 and we’re stuck at 21k Bitcoin. Lots of fuel to go down more if the stocks turn again. Gotta hate this crap, absolutely no power or hope in the price action right now.

  8. “i’m going to back the truck up if we every see 20k again” < no you won’t

  9. Market looks extremely weak, but at this point I’m giving more chance to a bounce to the higher 20’s than a continuation of the dump sub 17.6k.

    The one thing that puzzles me a bit is how low the shorts still are on Bitfinex. Most people are extremely bearish and shorting has been like free money for the last 3 months, but still nobody seems quite interested in shorting the market on finex.

  10. I’ve found myself in this weird state where: on one hand I know the bear market could last another year or even two, possibly with some deep discounts… BUT I also feel compelled to lock in a large lump sum purchase with all my capital set aside for Bitcoin. I have the target amount of Bitcoin that I want to have and it’s just that balancing act of going ahead and buying it now or patiently waiting for better entries.

    Really tough to have patience. At this point I’m just buying a chunk every couple of days.

  11. Nothing special for me today.
    I just have the feeling that market and BTC is just stuck on the place.
    For now, I just hope to sell my NFTs from AngelBlock collection for the good price and earn, while the whole market is at the bottom

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