[Daily Discussion] – Saturday, June 25, 2022

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[Daily Discussion] - Saturday, June 25, 2022

17 thoughts on “[Daily Discussion] – Saturday, June 25, 2022”

  1. Well we had little rally this week. I’m interested how the weekend will be playing out.

  2. I like the mood here now, probably more of that happiness incoming.

    Traditional markets – even if they have another correction in the future, they should be green for the next few weeks.

    Defi collapse – everyone who was supposed to get liquidated already was, the rest moved their liquidation point way below hunters targets, Celsius will probably get bought out.

    Lots of people sold hoping to rebuy lower will actually need to rebuy higher if they want to remain in the game.

    Short squeeze is brewing.

    CPI already peeked or will peak on 13th July data reveal.

    Divergence on weekly, for those who enjoy TA.

  3. Which one is more probable in a bear market: bottom reversal or a bear flag? I know btc will be at 100k very soon, I am just asking for a friend.

  4. Will 10K be the new 100K? In this bear market, it seems most of the bears are looking at 10K breaking or hitting as a foregone conclusion. Many seem to be waiting for 10K-ish for their re-entry. Similar to how many seemed to believe 100K+ was a certainty in 2021.

    It could be that 10K is just too “obvious” a price target for the bottom that it will never hit. There is so much upside potential from that entry point. Just don’t see it hitting. Instead, I think a huge amount of cash is waiting on the sidelines, looking for the ultimate capitulation / buying opportunity. Too many people want the same thing.

  5. I know hope is dead in here but I’m thinking that we could be about to go on a major bull run. My thinking is that there’s a lot of money floating around because of inflation and recession fears, and all that money could provide really nice fuel for a crypto rally. Especially while other assets like real estate seem risky and inflated.

    I don’t know what’s going to happen in every sector but the real crash already came for bitcoin. Now most people seem to expect months or years of ranging in 15-25k range, which would make sense based on prior cycle behavior but….

    Instead, I think we could be about to go uber bull. I think btc is gonna start dripping up, maybe just normal ranging at first. But if we start showing a trend it could rapidly snowball. 3-4 green weeklies and BTC is going to look really attractive to all that cash everyone has wasting away.

    I guess the question is whether the massively decreased liquidity in the overall financial system due to higher rates is greater than the amount of cash fuel everyone is sitting on due to inflation. I think the latter may be a bigger factor for btc, since institutions control a smaller % of the space.

  6. What do people think about Nexo? Are they about to follow Celsius or do you believe them when they state they have more conservative and transparent practices?

  7. We are lower than when the S&P500 closed up 3% yesterday. After already having not moved all day despite tradfi mooning. This is truly some bullshit that we’ve seen in crypto lately.

  8. Hmm. Thanks. I believe they offered to take on some of Celsius secured loans, I don’t quite know what that would entail though. As far as I understand it, Nexo only offer fully collateralised loans so even in a down turn customers are more protected

  9. My proprietary metric marks the bottom at 16.3k daily close.

    It timed the 64k top at 100% risk and the 69k top was 80% risk. Therefore I trust my metric.

    It showed close to 0 risk when we dipped to 17k. In the short term, this was the bottom. Bottom range could increase if we crab sideways for a few months. But 17k was a golden opportunity.

  10. PA is slithering under the res band that ends around $21,400 (it’s both horizontal res and the top line of a descending trend channel so it’s strong resistance.) . If it can close an hourly candle or two above that, it should catch a 1K gap to 22,4ish. I shorted $21,3xx with a tight stop in case it rolls over and dips. I have a derisked long from 19,8xx still open so the short is to hedge the remainder of that trade.

  11. Guys, don’t go all in just yet. Lets start making a long sideways path towards the white line first: https://i.imgur.com/9gXNGrE.png

  12. Some Saturday morning hopium for you all. I took a look at the log chart and plotted the channel that we’ve had going all the way back. The macro is very uncertain right now and we touched the bottom of the channel this month. There’s people here saying we’re going lower, that sub $10k is on the table, that Bitcoin is a risky asset and has never seen a real macro bear market before. That last one is true, but do you remember why Satoshi created Bitcoin in the first place? Yea, that reason is still there and still just as much of a problem now (arguably even more so) as it was in 2009.

    Log chart

    With touching that bottom trend line if we end the month anywhere above ~$17.8k we’ve added another confirmation to Bitcoin’s floor and then we have a lot of room to run. We might spend the next 3 months hanging around the $25k-$28k range but I can feel the rumbling of an epic run starting in the fall and maybe carrying through to the next halving which is then the juice that pushes us to new ATH’s. You’ll see another trend at the top of that channel above and in May ’24 that line sits at $1.7MM. People say the halvings have less of an effect every cycle and maybe they do but its a line I look at and my pants get a little tight.

    Bottom trend slope

    This one is also interesting to me. If we confirm that bottom trend line again this month I feel pretty confident that our floor price grows by about 5%/month. What does that tell us on a very long timeframe? In 2 more halvings, when the block reward drops to just over 1.5BTC the absolute worst case scenario price is around $1MM.

    I don’t know about you guys, but when that time comes I’m gonna feel pretty good about backing the truck up when people were fretting buying $20k in 2022 because they thought it was going under $10k.

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