Bitcoin Price Prediction Analysis Post-Halving

Utilizing Vertex AI from Google Cloud, the analyst team at Spot On Chain has conducted rigorous modeling to forecast Bitcoin's price movements. Here's a concise breakdown of their predictions:

Short-Term Outlook (May-July 2024):

They anticipate Bitcoin prices to fluctuate between $56,000 and $70,000 during May, June, and July 2024. This interval signifies potential volatility in the market, with a notable 48% probability assigned to the scenario where BTC prices might dip below $60,000. Such forecasts indicate a cautious approach, acknowledging the possibility of short-term fluctuations or corrections in the price.

Mid-Term Projection (Second Half of 2024):

In the latter half of 2024, they expect significant movement, with a 63% probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000. This forecast signals a bullish sentiment prevailing in the market, further fueled by the anticipated rate cuts after the FOMC's December 2023 meeting, aiming to bring the federal funds rate down to 4.6%. These cuts may boost demand for risk-on assets like stocks and Bitcoin.

Fig 1. Equities (proxied by S&P 500) and Bitcoin have been positively correlated.

Fig 2. S&P 500 tends to rise after the FED cut rates.

Long-Term Perspective (First Half of 2025 and Beyond):

Looking further ahead, into the first half of 2025, they notice a compelling probability of BTC surpassing the $150,000 threshold. Specifically, there is a 42% chance assigned to this scenario, reflecting a bullish outlook for Bitcoin's price trajectory. Moreover, the likelihood of Bitcoin exceeding $150,000 amplifies to 70% when considering the entire year of 2025.

Fig 3. A new all-time high tends to be seen around 6 to 12 months after the halving event.

Methodological Considerations:

The SpotOnChain's analyst team built the models upon a comprehensive dataset, encompassing various historical trends and market drivers. Factors such as Bitcoin halving events, interest rate cycles, ETF performance, VC adoption of new cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin miner selling pressure history are meticulously incorporated into the models. However, it's essential to acknowledge the inherent limitations and uncertainties associated with predicting the future of Bitcoin.

In conclusion:

This forecasts provide valuable insights into Bitcoin's potential price trends, aiding investors in navigating the cryptocurrency market, but should not be construed as guarantees of future performance.

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