To avoid being in the red, publicly-listed Bitcoin mining companies will need the BTC price to be at least $98,000 by the 2024 halving!

For publicly-listed Bitcoin miners, in particular, a price north of $100,000 may be more of a necessity than a forecast if their business models are to remain profitable. Bitcoin mining stocks have been on a tear this year, outperforming BTC by a wide margin in recent months. While BTC has seen reduced volatility and a period of consolidation, Bitcoin mining companies’ stocks have risen by nearly 100% in a matter of months.

Recent performance of popular BTC mining stocks. Source: Seeking Alpha

A big increase in Bitcoin’s price will therefore be required for miners to remain profitable at today’s hash rate levels.

How high does the BTC price need to go for miners to maintain their current valuations?
A recent report by Seeking Alpha explores BTC mining by examining one popular miner in particular: Riot Platforms. It notes that despite Riot being expected to triple its mining capacity in 2024, the company and Bitcoin miners, in general, could face serious headwinds from the halving. A 50% decrease in BTC block rewards cuts miners’ main source of revenue in half. Miners like Riot can also issue new equity shares to fund their operations. This dilutes existing shares, meaning that even if the company’s underlying fundamentals are sustained, the share price may not keep up.

Do you think BTC can break the 100k price by end of 2024?

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50 thoughts on “To avoid being in the red, publicly-listed Bitcoin mining companies will need the BTC price to be at least $98,000 by the 2024 halving!”

  1. If it doesn’t reach 100k by the end of 2024 I’m sure we can all have a whip-round to help out these mega-rich organisations.

  2. >Do you think BTC can break the $100K price by end of 2024?

    No, that was by 2021 EOY

    2024 EOY will be $400K

  3. I mean, i think most people are hopefull (some might even say sure) BTC will go way beyond that price level.

  4. I believe in the four year cycle. It has lead to a new BTC high everytime. However, no one can predict the future.

  5. Ok then my hands on your shoulder and let’s see BTC at $100K or even better goes straight to $1.5Mil like what Cathy is predicting 😁

  6. I’m gonna hang a sign up in my room that says “bull run is tomorrow!” …

  7. The key sentence is “at today’s hash rate levels”. the hash rate will adjust itself if a lot of miners stop mining.

  8. It’s not as simple as this imo. Riot can find ways to reduce their cost base by finding cheaper electricity, achieve greater economies of scale by increasing the size of their operation etc. Just because the mining rewards drop doesn’t mean that’s going to flow down to their bottom line profit.

    Fwiw I think we’ll hit $100k at some point, no idea if that’ll be in 2024.

  9. I think all of us plebs need BTC to break 98k as well in order to take some sort of profit…

  10. The hash rate will likely decrease, making it more likely for them to earn BTC…but at the cost of decentralization.

  11. Seems like very risky business model. Even first year economy students know that you should never rely on so uncertain things like price in the future. Additionaly $98k is a lot, so risk is huge

  12. It seems like a crazy risky bet, but at the same time I read about some miners increasing capacity. That seems like a weird gamble?

  13. Friendly reminder that you haven’t voted yet 😛 u get a moon bonus as incentive

  14. I don’t think the markets will recover for at least a decade. The upcoming recession is going to do some damage.

  15. Im certain I read on this very sub last week or so that the price for a miner to break even was only 30k after the halving. So which is it fams.

  16. “uhm, i dont worry you know, because game theory and such”
    “there’s exponents in this bitch it’s pure science”

  17. I think this is just going to lead to miner consolidation. Some will go out of business, those that will remain will benefit from hash rate changes, and life goes on. There is no guarantee that BTC price will rise, just that fewer and fewer companies will be able to (exist and) mine profitably.

    Seems like this is going to be a bigger and bigger issue with each subsequent halving if the price does not continue to rise.

  18. Cointest pros & cons with related info are in the collapsed comments below for the following topics: Bitcoin, Proof-of-Work.

  19. I read somewhere that BTC price needs to be above ~22k for miners to be profitable now. The halving will probably double that amount setting a new floor for Bitcoin.

  20. Nice hopium but that’s not really how it works in the real world.

    If a mining operation isn’t profitable anymore, they’ll shut down. Meaning the hashrate will go down, meaning it’ll become more profitable to mine BTC. It balance itself

  21. That’s actually not as bullish as many perceive it to be. I for instance need the price of this bunch of avatars to be worth over $2k not to be in the red. Doesn’t make it any more likely does it?

  22. This is completely backwards thinking. Bitcoin doesn’t care what miners want. Markets don’t care what miners want. Neither of them cares for whether miners are profitable.

    Mining economics isn’t complex, but it is unintuitive. When miner revenue goes down (either from bear market / crashes, fee reductions, or a halving) the least efficient miners simply go bankrupt and close up shop. Them failing lowers the difficulty and other miners get back to zero or profitability. The miners who are the most efficient will always make a profit (though usually much smaller than most people think). The miners who are in the middle simply have to hang on until their inefficient competition goes bankrupt. They would almost never temporarily shut down because the costs for leases and infrastructure are ongoing and already sunk, and you don’t want to lose your most skilled labor during a temporary shutdown because replacing them is extremely difficult.

    That’s how the economics works for when revenue declines. On the reverse side in a bull market, mining follows a “saturation point” on a three to six month lag (how long it takes to build and deploy new facilities & miners). The saturation point is reached when most would-be miners sit down and attempt to do their (usually terrible and incorrect) napkin math and it doesn’t look profitable enough to cover the very large capital and facilities difficulties involved with building large scale mines.

    Miners don’t drive bitcoin prices (except down, selling to cover their costs), and Bitcoin doesn’t need profitable miners.

  23. its nonsense. So you mean btc price rising will be endless?
    By the way, btc price will be under $20k bye the end of 2024.

  24. Running in the red has never really been a problem for them before, they sell more shares and a few go broke, then everything pumps and everyone acts like the price will never go down again.

  25. So BTC is in fact not sustainable forever. It In fact needs the ponzi economics to stay afloat. Let’s be honest here. No one is actually using it to buy shit reliably enough to make up the difference for the Miners.

  26. Or maybe they go bankrupt, hashrate goes down and smaller fish can get into mining again.

  27. Unfortunately bitcoin doesn’t care. If the price isn’t that high and it isn’t profitable then difficulty drops and people like my with 3080s can start mining again.

    Isn’t it great not having to worry because the self-regulating system actually regulates itself? I’m hoping it doesn’t breach 100k by 2024, I want to mine more.

  28. I dont think the big players gonna stop mining regardless, as the hashrate is a self fulfilling prophecy, when mining hashrate drops, the retails starts mining to compensate and when its up and profitable enough, the big players keep on it.

  29. The fundamental flaw in BTC that maxis ignore. At some point mining will be so unprofitable large amount of miners will go belly up and the security will drop massively

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