ONE/BTC

ONE/BTC has been on price discovery for the last week with the first of many targets being met. This was a multi year cup and handle target of 784 sats.

Multi year cup & handle ONE/BTC weekly chart.

My immediate next expectations for ONE/BTC:

• If BTC dumps below 40k: ONE/BTC to decline down to the red zone (300-400 sats)
• If BTC maintains this level: cool down and accumulate between 650-current level sats
• If BTC starts rising: cool down and accumulate between 500-650 sats.

ONE/USD

On the ONE/USD side we are battling this descending level which is sitting at 0.31927 on this 4hr candle (As of writing). I did note previously that $0.327 is an immediate level to look out for as it forms the linear fib 0.786 level (between ATH to the recent $0.13489 swing low).

Do we have enough juice to break this? I think we do. The 4h RSI and Stoch have plenty of room while the MACD is teethering on flipping green. I think it actually did turn green for a bit but was stopped due to the US jobs market data. From what I've seen, triple confluence on these indicators is quite rare.

I would target the 1.618 as drawn below which puts it at $0.37, just shy of the ATH. There is still the ATH daily close @ $0.346 to act as resistance so I am not confident it will make it there.

ONE/USD 4h candle stick showing descending level of resistance. Primary indicators have plenty of room above.

Risks & Retracements

As previously covered, BTC dumping below 40k will spell trouble for ONE/BTC valuation which in turn will cause ONE/USD to also drop. I expect at least 40% correction re ONE/BTC so the instantaneous ONE/USD target would be around $0.18 with potential wicks to $0.10 ish levels depending on how aggressive the cascading liquidations get.

Standard retracements I would expect to $0.268. If this is broken I expect a deeper correction down to $0.217.

I personally can't see ONE dropping to those levels unless BTC dumps hard or some major mainnet problem like network outage (similar to solana).