Monday's $3,000 BTC candle was a sign of what's to come. Several sources of demand converged onto BTC in a short window of time and caused the price to break out to its highest level in 15 months.
The known sources of estimated demand are:
– Daily buying pressure of $25m per day who soak up the daily issuance of new coins hitting the market.
– Market makers who were short futures and needed to own spot BTC to remain delta neutral. They represented $250m in shorts liquidated (aka rekt).
– $43m in demand from the likes of BlackRock, Fidelity and the gang seeding their spot ETFs.
All together that comes to $325m of demand which pushed price up $3,000 per BTC. The market cap of Bitcoin increased by $63 billion dollars from a few hundred million invested. The multiplier on that is 193x! That means that BTC's market cap increases by $193 for ever $1 invested in the coin. I have heard people talking about this multiplier effect, but it doesn't hit home until you run the numbers yourself.
Now, for the fun part. 👇
Blackrock estimates that $200 billion dollars will flow into Bitcoin from Blackrock's iShares ETF (ticker iBTC) and others in the first 3 years. That amount of demand, if spread evenly over 3 years would come to $183m per day excluding all other sources of demand. Multiply $183m by 193 and the Bitcoin market cap grows by $35 billion dollars per day. In terms of price, that would be about $1700 of price appreciation per BTC, per day. After 3 years, the BTC price would be over $2,000,000 from spot ETF demand alone.
The really mind-boggling part is that I excluded everything else that would also be bullish for BTC. Daily buying pressure could be far greater than what will come from the ETFs. I haven't accounted for the halving, nor the demand from sources other than the ETFs, nor the next nation state(s) to adopt BTC, nor the FOMO from retail investors, nor the next class of Bitcoiners from all walks of life.
Bitcoiners are known to be bullish. But most of us are nowhere near bullish enough.