Ok, I’ve been doing some math, and my mind is officially blown. I don’t think any of us are bullish enough.

Monday's $3,000 BTC candle was a sign of what's to come. Several sources of demand converged onto BTC in a short window of time and caused the price to break out to its highest level in 15 months.

The known sources of estimated demand are:

– Daily buying pressure of $25m per day who soak up the daily issuance of new coins hitting the market.

– Market makers who were short futures and needed to own spot BTC to remain delta neutral. They represented $250m in shorts liquidated (aka rekt).

– $43m in demand from the likes of BlackRock, Fidelity and the gang seeding their spot ETFs.

All together that comes to $325m of demand which pushed price up $3,000 per BTC. The market cap of Bitcoin increased by $63 billion dollars from a few hundred million invested. The multiplier on that is 193x! That means that BTC's market cap increases by $193 for ever $1 invested in the coin. I have heard people talking about this multiplier effect, but it doesn't hit home until you run the numbers yourself.

Now, for the fun part. 👇

Blackrock estimates that $200 billion dollars will flow into Bitcoin from Blackrock's iShares ETF (ticker iBTC) and others in the first 3 years. That amount of demand, if spread evenly over 3 years would come to $183m per day excluding all other sources of demand. Multiply $183m by 193 and the Bitcoin market cap grows by $35 billion dollars per day. In terms of price, that would be about $1700 of price appreciation per BTC, per day. After 3 years, the BTC price would be over $2,000,000 from spot ETF demand alone.

The really mind-boggling part is that I excluded everything else that would also be bullish for BTC. Daily buying pressure could be far greater than what will come from the ETFs. I haven't accounted for the halving, nor the demand from sources other than the ETFs, nor the next nation state(s) to adopt BTC, nor the FOMO from retail investors, nor the next class of Bitcoiners from all walks of life.

Bitcoiners are known to be bullish. But most of us are nowhere near bullish enough.

Via: https://twitter.com/danieleripoll/status/1717190165415006712

50 thoughts on “Ok, I’ve been doing some math, and my mind is officially blown. I don’t think any of us are bullish enough.”

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  2. > That means that BTC’s market cap increases by $193 for ever $1 invested in the coin

    While this may have been the marginal effect, this is highly unlikely to persist with more buys. Sure, price will keep going up for the simple reason that there are more buyers, but as it goes up, more and more people will be willing to sell and lock in profits. This will result in a more tempered demand-supply frontier.

    We don’t know what that frontier is, but we’ll find out soon enough, as we make our way up it.

    1. You are making an unverified assumption regarding how much money came in to form a $3,000 candle.

    2. Due to that, your 193x prediction is incorrect.

    3. You also managed to apply 193x to all levels of Bitcoin, which is going to give you insanely inflated predictions as Bitcoin rises. As the market cap increases, more and more money will be needed to move to needle.

    I’m bullish too, but your assumptions, ignorance, and unknown elements make this a fairly useless prediction. I think you’d do well to learn more about volume and liquidity in Bitcoin, as well as the law of diminishing returns. These concepts apply to more than just Bitcoin, by the way.

  3. This is all insane, but I’ll take some hopium after these last couple of weeks

  4. I hate to say it but we can’t act like black rock and other companies are going to be okay buying “the top” if things keep going up for crypto , they’ll pull a -insert ww3- before buying the top of anything

  5. I like the way you’re talking to the calculator. I’m still in my accumulation cycle

  6. No one understands how spot ETFs even work, but they’re basing entire arguments upon them.


  7. Posts like this make me feel like we are going to get a huge correction soon.

  8. Why do you think we’re holding above 34k so strongly. A lot of folks waiting for the next leg up. I know I am 🚀🚀🚀

  9. i think etf’s are dumb. why buy bitcoin etf’s when you can literally just buy bitcoin?

  10. As much as this would be fun, your last point just doesn’t work that way 🤔☹️

  11. I think the wild swings the last week or so have all been related to the mere hint of institutional money. Do you think the listing of four letters on the dtcc clearing list has sparked $3-4k in speculative interest? I do not. I believe you are witnessing the death of satoshi’s vision. If the entire market cap of Btc is $500 billion, what is stopping Blackrock from using that same amount to swing the market? I foresee nasty things in btc’s future.

  12. Strong “did you know disco record sales were up 400% for the year ending 1976, and if these trends continue… ayyyy!” vibes.

  13. I for one, very bullish. But think a lot of people on the sidelines. Price will explode, and i don’t want to be left behind, just bought 10K yesterday, now I have some peace of mind. Don’t care if price drops a bit, way more upside than downside. In it for the long run.

  14. I just hopeful that I can make enough off of this bullrun on Alt coins to be able to buy just 1 BTC at the next bear market. (I am DCAing BTC)

  15. The only thing OP is missing from this post is rocket emojis and yelling, “To the moon!”

  16. The fact that people are posting treats about the BTC/USD valuations means that we are still early.

  17. > The market cap of bitcoin increased by $63 billion dollars from a few hundred million invested…That means that ₿TC’s market cap increases by $193 for every $1 invested in the coin

    No, market cap is just the product of supply of coins and price of coin, nothing more. And price of coin depends on buyer and seller liquidity, not “how much is invested”.

    Imagine this extreme imaginary scenario where everyone agrees to not sell any bitcoin. That includes whales, miners, institutions, retail, etc… Now, if I log onto an exchange and try to buy $5 worth of bitcoin, the exchange algo will see that there are no sellers at the current price and it’ll look for a higher price. There is no higher price so it goes higher. It keeps repeating that until some jack ass finally says, “ok, my bitcoin crumbs are now worth the gdp of the solar system, so I’m going to fill this guy’s $5 buy order with 1 micro satoshi”. Once that trade happens, that new, extremely elevated price, is the new price. Only $5 was invested but because liquidity was so low (non existent in our fake scenario) it sent bitcoin to the moon. Now of course, others will start selling and no one would be buying at this crazy price and price would fall back down until there are equal volumes of buying and selling pressure.

    So back to reality – sometimes, liquidity is really low and hundreds of millions will cause price to make violent moves. Other times, the liquidity will be there and hundreds of millions will barely make a dent. Normally, liquidity increases as the asset gets more valuable.

  18. Foss and Laporte believe Bitcoin will hit 2M per coin come 2030. So your figure isn’t too far off.

  19. Like I said. BTC doesn’t care about bad economic condition. The big money is just waiting for the right moment to be deployed.

  20. Bitcoin barely managed to do a 3x from the 2017 top to the 2021 top and you are telling me it’s gonna do a 30x in the next cycle and reach $2 mil?

    A much better reference is to see how Gold did following the approval of its ETF.

  21. RemindMe! 1 year “state of the markets”

    Another article on the ETF, telling us it’s gonna go to the moon.

    Lots of pain to come until the bull starts. Macro needs to get fixed first

  22. Shorts being liquidated contributed to the spike.

    Longs being liquidated will bring the price back down.

    Rinse and repeat 😆

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