Crypto market looks remarkably stable, with the 20-day Bollinger Bands showing an extreme contraction. With only a 4.2% range, this was the calmest BTC market since the early January pause. Back then, Bitcoin broke out and kept rising throughout the month, ending up with about 40% gains.
Bitcoin Bollinger Band, range chart (screenshot). Source: Glassnode
The market was not locking in much “realized” profit or loss, despite the BTC price rise since January. This was a typical pattern in periods after price cycle bottoms. The market is seeing very low volatility, along with cyclical lows in realized profit and loss.
Bitcoin short/long-term total realized value chart (screenshot). Source: Glassnode
The total of profits plus losses is now around $290 million per day. This is a big amount in nominal terms, but it is similar to the 2019 peak, and to October 2020 when BTC prices were half of what they are now. This means that even though the Bitcoin market cap is ~2x bigger today, investors who have large profits or losses are very reluctant to use their coins on-chain.
Is this a sign of accumulation or distribution? What do you think will happen next?