[Daily Discussion] – Wednesday, June 22, 2022

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[Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, June 22, 2022

19 thoughts on “[Daily Discussion] – Wednesday, June 22, 2022”

  1. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/06/21/enormous-outflows-from-largest-bitcoin-etf-may-have-triggered-btc-crash/

    ‘Enormous Outflows’ From Largest Bitcoin ETF May Have Triggered BTC Crash

    The Purpose Bitcoin ETF saw an outflow of 24,510 bitcoins on Friday, the most severe redemption in a single day since the fund made its debut on the Canadian Stock Exchange in April 2021, according to the Norway-based Arcane Research.

  2. Btc higher lows intact. We need to see a nice volume green candle/higher high today

  3. FTX bailing out Blockfi is not what I had on my bingo card. What are they going to get out of this? And why didn’t they bail out Celsius? Or did they attempt to and Alex rejected it?

  4. UK just printed its highest inflation rate in 40 years as well. Maybe a reason for the dip

  5. Can anyone explain what’s going on with Celcius?

    I don’t know much about them beyond they’re a crypto lending platform, but from what I can tell there was just a bank run on them.

    Don’t all the people they loaned money to still have to return it to them eventually? So won’t everyone with money on the platform get it back after these loans are up in a few months?

  6. We moved up over 20% from our recent low and people still pull out their pikachu face when we have 5% drop.

    Never change, crypto audience 👏

  7. Yesterday we had a tiny pump, and everyone was saying bull market is back, btc is going to 28k in 2 days, etc etc. There is plenty of room for stocks to go down and we all know btc is the little bitch of stocks so far. So even if we’re down to 20k, if stocks go down more, btc is going to follow. What is the bullish case here? Best case scenario I can see is dump to 12-15k and then sideways for at least a year in that range. Maybe even lower depending on tradfi.

  8. Market seems spooked. Small buyers and whales bought a bit back from 20k to tease a breakout yesterday, but not enough people piled in. We’re gonna follow stocks and other macro news for awhile it seems, crypto news, good or bad, don’t really seem to matter all that much anymore after we dropped so heavily and on already a ton of bad news. Not to be negative, I still hold home that in Q4 we’ll reverse course according to what goes on in Ukraine and how the Fed handles things.

  9. 9:30 a.m. EST – Testimony — Chair Jerome H. Powell “Semiannual Monetary Policy Report” to Congress (Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate)

    https://www.banking.senate.gov/hearings/the-semiannual-monetary-policy-report-to-congress

    In 4 and half hours if I am correct.

  10. https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-ecb-has-a-huge-dilemma-price-stability-or-bail-out-nations

    …. On July 26, 2012, with similar spiking underway, then ECB President Mario Draghi (now Italy’s president and symbolic leader, the Prime Minister is leader) issued this statement.”We will do whatever it takes to save the Euro, and believe me it will be enough.”Q: What did Draghi do?A: Nothing!

    Bluff vs Bluff

    Draghi got away with a bluff because the pressures of globalization were disinflationary. Lagarde will not get away with the same bluff, stated very wimpishly, because the forces of de-globalization and the war in Ukraine are very inflationary.

    The problem the ECB faces is far more complex that the Fed’s problem. The Fed is on a mission to fight inflation and there is only one country to worry about.

    There is no single interest rate that makes any sense for Germany, Greece, Spain, Italy, and Portugal. The Fed is struggling to find the neutral rate, and I believe will overshoot, but at least there is a neutral rate.

    Lagarde is on Mission Impossible with 19 countries in the Eurozone, all with a different neutral. In theory, the sovereign bonds of Germany and Greece are the same. Default risks are the same.In practice this is total nonsense, and for the third time the idea is being tested. …

    Europe is headed for much more trouble. The hopium for us: If my memory serves me right, the price of BTC spiked during the Cyprus banking and solvency crisis in 2013.

  11. Based on daily thread comment counts, I hereby declare Saturday June 18, 2022 as the official local bottom, due to it having the maximum number of comments (1813).

  12. After stocks rugged so badly, I expected a quick dump below 20k. Finally shorts not printing totally free money.. possibly.

  13. Weird question: Could the price actions we have seen in recent months potentially reflect or, on some abstract level, anticipate a very strong deflationary trend or incident?

    Second question: If there is indeed a real problem, what kind of investments could benefit from this trend? (serious answers, please. I know that some might be thinking “coffins, rope, pitchforks, …”)

    Why I am asking: The data recently obtained by two US life insurers suggests that a very unusual increase in the mortality among persons of working age appears to have occurred. Interestingly, they state that this increase is not related to the pandemic:

    https://crossroadsreport.substack.com/p/breaking-fifth-largest-life-insurance?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=email

    Thoughts? I am inclined to think that the answer to the question I raised is no and that there are plenty of other explanations that seem more plausible. Last but not least, why should a BTC holder sell BTC in exchange for some other asset, when presumably all markets would be affected by this mysterious development?

    Nevertheless, I thought it might be interesting to briefly discuss these findings, in the context of our focus in this sub reddit, given the impression of many (veterans) that this bear market is more severe or worse than previous ones.

  14. Another (geopolitically) important country that might be relevant to our observations is Turkey. I am a bit puzzled over how quiet the situation appears to still be there, given the extreme levels of inflation.

    The USD is at an all-time high vs. the Turkish Lira. The bear market in BTC looks a lot less severe when seen on a (long-term) BTC/TRY chart.

    https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=TRY&view=10Y

    https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=BTC&to=TRY&view=10Y

  15. Powell live right now on https://www.banking.senate.gov/hearings/the-semiannual-monetary-policy-report-to-congress but you can just read it here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20220622a.htm edit: CNBC is bit ahead compared to the stream.

    More interesting might be the questions right now.


    • Elizabeth Warren arguing inflation is caused by lot of external factors (oil, wheat, fertilizers.. all by war), so raising hikes to cause a recession to lower the demand is not smart to do. She urges Powell not to drive economy off a cliff.

    • Powell: string of additional rate increases are priced in, that’s appropriate.

  16. Tired of hearing old people talk. No action. Overthrow these institutions and we’ll finally have peace and prosperity

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