[Daily Discussion] – Wednesday, July 13, 2022

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[Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, July 13, 2022

44 thoughts on “[Daily Discussion] – Wednesday, July 13, 2022”

  1. I’m hoping for a drop when the cpi is announced. I’ll try to do a scalp trade, thinking it will bounce shortly after

  2. Drop below 18.6k and things could get spicy.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/uaOgqdLO/

  3. Lol fuel oil up 98.5% yoy, gas up 59.9%

    But don’t worry peeps inflation is “only” 9.1%

    Best hodl those sweet dollarydoos amirite?

    What a farce

  4. Stopped out on a two day old long…defaulting back to my long term strategy of buying spot from $18,500&lower to restack profit-taking spot sells from the bull. No rush on that as we’ll likely have plenty of sub 19k prices for many months. I still don’t see capitulation-sized moves to the downside so I’ll scalp a bit here and there but not today, since I can’t see a setup with a good r/r.

  5. If you could just go ahead and be that hedge against inflation, that would be great…

  6. Oh yes let me hedge inflation by buying a risk-on asset, then get mad when people point out a depreciating currency is performing better

  7. You’d think people would be getting the hint by now that the fed could raise rates to a billion percent tomorrow and it would not stop prices going up.

    The inflation we see now is caused by money supply increases from 2 years ago. The fed cannot take back those increases. They can only prevent further increases. Nothing the fed does now will affect inflation next month or likely even next year.

    But go ahead and sell the objectively superior money, everyone else is

  8. I know there talk of inflation tailing off but I’m expecting double digits globally before it turns around.

  9. Aaaaand here comes the 1-2 combo of CPI bad plus stocks opening well in the red…

  10. People – get rid of the utopian idea that there is something called a short term inflation hedge. There isn’t. How do you think fiat has managed to exist if there was such a thing?

    What you can have at best is a long term inflation hedge.

  11. Solid chance 9.1% YoY CPI for June was the peak for this year.

    Market is pricing in another Fed rate hike of 75 BP later this month, possibly even 100 BP. A 75 BP rate hike would bring the Fed funds rate to 2.4% which would match the Fed funds rate the Fed managed to reach the last time they hiked rates at the end of 2018 before ultimately reversing course.

    Additionally, although gas prices are still high, they are currently down 8% from June’s peak.

    If we don’t successfully manage to reach a lower low today on the CPI news, it’s likely $17.7k in June was the bottom.

  12. Large increase in mempool fees this morning. That usually means coins going back to exchanges to be quickly sold. I expect new cycle low within 12 to 48 hours.

    Yes this metric can be gamed but I see no reason to believe that’s what’s happening.

  13. Selling on new CPI data starts to be so lame, we all knew whole month that numbers will be worse and past week btc was dropping day by day

  14. That was peak inflation for the year, bps increase doesn’t matter because 75 and 100 are basically expected at this point.

    Time for slow crawl up until fed pivot in the fall for election time, k bye.

  15. This game is so easy to beat, I have no idea how anyone could think this is a tough market to trade when large numbers of you thought the CPI numbers would make the market tank.

  16. Crypto vs. Tradfi… I hate it. Can we get a decoupling pls.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/b8se3rsg/

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/HlgLkiCD/

  17. Was this CPI fakeout dump the last chance to buy BTC under $19k or are we just going to whipsaw up and down for a few days to continue screwing everyone over before finally deciding on a direction?

  18. I’m willing to go out on a limb and state that this morning was the last time bitcoins will ever be worth less than $19,000. Someone can set up one of those “reminder” bots next month if they’d like.

    The Fed may or may not continue raising interest rates, but it doesn’t matter. They will eventually learn that the virus doesn’t care what the Federal Funds Rate is. The Fed can bring down inflation in a very limited sector of the economy and create a recession – that’s it.

    Until there is a universal coronavirus vaccine, which is probably still two years away, the core issues that are causing inflation, such as the labor shortage caused by workers who are hesitant to expose themselves to the virus, long COVID sufferers who are out of the workforce permanently, and the Chinese lockdowns, will continue. I’m amazed how people don’t seem to make the connection that the pilot shortages in the US, and particularly in the UK, started about four weeks after the mask mandate on planes was ended. You can do a search for that yourself. Of course the price of travel has risen to the highest in years when the supply of flights is reduced by crew illness.

    The end of the war would help, but gas prices are down in this report and food prices also moderated. Food costs were thought to be impacted by Russians destroying Ukranian farms and holding up exports in Odesa, but that doesn’t seem to be affecting US prices at least.

    Once it finally clicks that inflation is here to stay and that the Fed can’t do anything about it, we’re going to make a lot of money.

    That should not be taken to mean that I believe bitcoins will hit $100,000 any time soon – I said in my most recent post that I think $50,000 is the top of the next bubble.

  19. So is there any chance Grayscale suing the SEC will do anything? What time frames are we looking at? Any predictions on when a spot ETF will launch?

  20. Apparently both fiat money and hard deflationary money are fucked. Commodities are fucked. Stocks are fucked. Housing market will dump soon. Where to go?

    Fuck it dude, let’s go buy more Bitcoin.

  21. Haha, I nip out for a few hours, get home check price, pretty much where it was. Open chart and see it went above 20 then below 19 then back bove 20, classic BTC, never change

  22. What can be done to reverse inflation other than destruction of the money supply?
    It dawned on me today that we talked a lot about inflation in econ and finance classes but never how to reverse it, only what causes it.

  23. At what pace is the 200WMA declining? If we just continue to grind around 19-20k at what point will we find ourselves grinding above it?

  24. Remember how people were complaining about how btc was stuck between 58-60k? 😂

  25. CPI higher than forecast, QQQ and corn up slightly and 10 year treasury yields down slightly. Not what I expected. Maybe 17.5 really was the bottom?

  26. The ever-elusive Reverse Ascending Triangle Broadening Descending Wedge formation.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/dsWEhNjZ/

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