[Daily Discussion] – Tuesday, June 21, 2022

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[Daily Discussion] - Tuesday, June 21, 2022

24 thoughts on “[Daily Discussion] – Tuesday, June 21, 2022”

  1. I’ve got some money in a 529 for my kids college fund. All my kids are under the age of 7 so it’s a 10+ year hold. I’m seriously considering pulling the money out and paying the penalty and buying MSTR and GBTC with it. Thats crazy right? Right…?

  2. Futures are ripping up could be a wild day tomorrow.

    9/13 biggest days in the Dow have happened during bear markets.

  3. looks like all that drinking and staring at the chart the last few days might just pay off

  4. Hi all,

    I have created another educational video in the Supply & Demand series investigating momentum divergence as a leading indicator. I explain high strike rate methods for profit taking (~90% strike rate in BTC), including how it would have taken profits at the peaks of the 2020 BTC cycle, 2019 ATH retest in BTCUSD, and Q4 2022 on the S&P500 top, ultimately saving a 70%, 50% and 30% drawdown respectively.

    Taking profit will not only retain the equity curve, but it also preserves capital – Capital is not locked in a drawdown if another trading opportunity opens up (i.e. REIT starts trending) and avoids the psychological battle with large drawdowns.

    The first 3 minutes talks about volume sticks to give a background to the idea of the investigation. Skip to 2:45 to jump straight into using momentum divergence with the decreasing rate of change hypothesis.

    Hope this helps.

    Happy trading

  5. Looks like Kraken is down! 500 errors on their sites & APIs.
    Nothing on their Twitter about it though.

  6. Let’s hope that drop to $17k was the bottom. I assume we’ll see sideways-ish movement for at least 3-6 months before the bull comes back?

    Edit: what are we putting the chances of a spot ETF at this year?

  7. Looks like we’re gearing up to test the 200w ma. That roughly coincides with 1T crypto market cap. These are key levels to watch. If we can’t overcome them batten down the hatches for winter.

  8. Onchain volume profile (source:whalemap) showing good support at 21K and below. If 21K can hold well for a couple of days or so, a swift movement to 27K could be on the cards.

  9. Wow, things are looking really good.

    1. Trad fi futures very green
    2. EU and asian stocks green
    3. Defi actors that were posing a risk to the crypto ecosystem moved their liquidation points so low, that they are quite improbable to be hit, and with current price action they are recovering their profits
    4. everything was undersold and due for a bounce anyway
    5. solid support slightly above 20k (on chain) & all attempts to go below 20k yesterday were instantly rebought
    6. divergence on the charts
    7. bearish sentiment reached it’s peak this weekend (just like bullish sentiment reached it’s peak close to the top)
    8. macro looking good – 75 bps already priced in , expectations for next months CPI good.
    9. So all things are pointing for huge reversal at this point and we have probably seen the bottom. So for balance I would love to hear any bearish sentiments, in case they are any left.
  10. This is the first time I’ve been following the Net Delta metric on Deribit options, but there’s been a lot of call buying recently. Net delta is still way negative, though, and I don’t expect that to change for awhile as the market is still overall bearish. However, since it is so negative, there likely are many people who are net negative as well and will want to capture those gains. Max pain currently sits at 30k for June; I doubt we go there but I wouldn’t be surprised to see us at 25-27k by the end of the week. That would be quite a candle, too, if we can close above last week’s open of 26,555 (on Coinbase).

    Even after June expires, net delta will still be negative by more than a 2 to 1 margin. I’m going to start following net delta and see if it can be useful. My guess is that we will be bouncing in the 20’s for a little before breaking out of 30k sometime in July or August. Once net delta becomes more neutral we’ll start ranging and accumulating. I still think we can be >40k by the end of the year.

  11. MSTR infact up in pre-market despite the BTC capitulation event over the three-day trading break.

    https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/mstr/pre-market

  12. So that was it, that easy ? Big red candle on a weekend, and then everything will turn green ?

    As repeated many times in this sub, until the Celsius drama resumes I don’t believe we will have a clear direction, even if we are extremely oversold.

  13. Bought 1.75 for around $19661 over the weekend. I have 3 open limit buys down to $15501 just in case the celcius-situation turns ugly.

  14. Im thinking (guessing really) markets will go side ways for another few months, maybe few spikes to 23 or 24k max and maybe bits below 18k then will go dead not doing much more than 26 to 28k max for next 6 months to year, slow recovery and next ATH in early 2025

  15. Thought I’d share my current ideas around entry and buy triggers given where we currently are and the macro outlook. I’ve broken my buy triggers down into *price driven* and *event driven* buy triggers. The plan at this point is to enter with small amounts of my available capital (5% at a time), until the bottom appears to be in, when I will revert to weekly/monthly DCA in readiness for the 2024 halving…

    Price Driven: I have the following targets/stink bids from a price perspective based upon historical price action. BTC amount doubles at each level…

    $16k (last support after correction before breaking 2017 ATH on the way up in 2020.

    $12k (was resistance in mid 2020, broken through in October if I remember correctly.

    $10k (psychological line in the sand).

    $9k (was a key level throughout 2019 and 2020).

    Anything below this is pack it up it’s over.

    ​

    Event Driven: Macro is clearly a considerable headwind given the current environment. That being said, we’re…

    -Already 7 months into a bear market.

    -Have hit 70%+ correction from the ATH last November.

    -Had a gargantuan capitulation over the past week, with the Pi Cycle bottom indicator close to firing off.

    ​

    That doesn’t mean it can’t/won’t go lower, but that perhaps the *amount* of downside left/time left may not be as long as people fear. I’m looking at the below events to lead to/trigger a Fed pivot back to turning the money printer back on. As each of the below events takes place,

    I’ll wait to see how the price action settles/vol reduces, then look to buy a little after each of…

    a) When a US/global recession is officially announced. It’s likely going to be in July as we print Q2 -ve GDP. Contraction in the economy means job losses and lower tax revenues. The US gov will have to do something to stimulate the economy in this event, otherwise the ability to meet interest payments on their sovereign debt will be impacted.

    b) Further downside in PMI prints over the summer, that will indicate demand destruction as production falls…

    c) July CPI print & FOMC interest rate announcement in July… If CPI prints higher again, it’ll spook the markets, and force the Fed to go with another 75 bp increase. That’s going to put more pressure on sovereign, corporate and individual debt servicing. Credit spreads will widen further, the dollar/LIBOR/REPO rate will spike as people clamour for dollars to service the debt, and will lead us closer to (d) below…

    d) As we get the big equity shit and vol spike. All the selling has been orderly so far with relatively low volatility compared to COVID & volmageddon in 2018. At some point, the panic selling will start, triggering the limit downs and circuit breakers over multiple sessions.

    e) US Midterms in November… I believe that a-d will all happen by September, or October by the latest. The Dems will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat in order to improve their approval rating. If we’re in the midst of economic chaos and job losses given the above, then the infrastructure spending plans & Fed pivot will need to come to switch the printer back on and stimulate the economy.

    If we get through (a)-(e) without hitting my price targets above and hold steady above them, I will assume those price targets are invalidated, and use the capital to commence weekly/monthly DCA.

    ​

    The key is not to ape in too soon. There will be time to buy in. This level of capitulation will take time to recover from.

    It may not be the greatest plan, but it’s a plan at least. Let me know if you have any other thoughts/ideas on what to watch.

    Good luck out there…

  16. Wage / price spiral theory says higher wages drive higher prices of goods which in turn lead to demand for higher wages and thus creates an inflationary spiral.

    What I can’t understand is how can this so- called spiral just manifest without the underlying money supply being increased and for which the central bank alone has rights to do so?

    Why is the central bank in UK for example making noises and asking the private sector for wage restraint as if the private sector has the ability to print money from thin air on their own?

  17. Couple of Bearish signals on the lower timeframe (1H):

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/qOMH8CxI/

    Rising wedge and rejection from prior resistance. Close above 21.5k and Bulls are in business, however.

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