[Daily Discussion] – Tuesday, June 14, 2022

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[Daily Discussion] - Tuesday, June 14, 2022

42 thoughts on “[Daily Discussion] – Tuesday, June 14, 2022”

  1. Market is now pricing in a Fed rate increase of 0.75% this week. Yesterday it was pricing in a Fed rate increase of 0.5%

    More importantly, market is now pricing in a Fed funds rate of 3.75% by EOY. Yesterday it was pricing in a Fed funds rate of 3% by EOY. No way 3.75% by EOY happens, we’ll get stupid high unemployment forcing the Fed back to QE before 3.75% is ever reached.

    Basically I’m saying markets have overreacted with their expectations on QT. Which now allows plenty of room for markets to rally as reality sets in and QT expectations get loosened.

    $20k was the bottom.

  2. I’ve bought the dip pretty aggressively since 33k and now out of fiat to sell. Hopefully we can put a bottom in here. Based on the levels of fear and panic and delusion that I see, there’s a good chance.

    Having said that the macro is still awful so who tf knows. I don’t need to get back my dollars any time soon so I’m chilling. Tick tock next block please.

  3. https://twitter.com/JackNiewold/status/1536401979466981377?t=cksBmCDAEjQPZDHcxwgmNQ&s=19

    The Celsius dillema explained for those unaware

  4. I actually now quite like these bear markets. The charts are interesting. The commentary is fascinating. Trying to predict the bottom is engaging. When will I turn back into a bull?

  5. Weekly RSI, Mayer Multiple, 200WMA, realized price, distance to 2017 ATH are all telling the same tale: we are undoubtedly oversold.

    But, fwiw, I just updated one of my “crash” indicators and this price dislocation that occurred over the weekend has left return and volatility signatures that look like a middle-ground between the 2018 Bear-market bottom and the March 2020 Covid crash. Whatever “this” is, there is no question that it’s very significant on long timeframes, and likely represents an amazing buying opportunity if you have some powder to spare. Hope everyone is navigating this shitstorm well-enough.

  6. I imagine Saylor at thanksgiving table telling all of his bankers ‘Dude, no it WILL go back up. Trust me’, and them all giving shifty side-eye glances to each other.

  7. Last cycle, post Dec 2017 top, BTC bottomed at 83% down from ATH.

    An 83% odd from 2021’s ATH leaves the price at around $11,000 range. Now its down just around 67%.

    Is there any reason BTC will not correct atleast as much as previous cycle, especially when its a much deeper macro bear now as compared to 2018-19? If anything the odds of correcting more than past cycles should be higher, all long duration risk assets get the same kind of treatment going into a higher rate cycle with economic slowdown

  8. Should we revisit this for hopium?


  9. This will be the first time price drops below previous ATH, please don’t use previous price actions to justify “this will not happen”. I don’t think any historical movement is relevant here where macro environment is completely different now. Bitcoin is still a kid compare to other assets, its 12 year history means nothing in front of a once 30-year event. That being said, I am not selling my stack, just stop buying until Wednesday.

  10. Interesting how now 90-100% (seem to change frequently) is estimating the 75bps: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html On Sunday (so effectively “before the weekend”) it was only 3.6%.

    At least if 75bps is priced in, the drop shouldn’t be too bad. And if we still get 50bps.. hopium.

  11. Seeing people discussing on telegram groups (I’m currently in Ben Cowen’s group) about how they wanna load their stables into alts like SOL and DOT saying that they feel confident about their future. Lol. Wtf. These people are idiotic.

    Edit: one guy said ADA and SOL are fully functional and will overtake BTC 🤣

  12. Fair to say it would hardly be surprising (and, like every Bitcoin move, will be obvious in hindsight) if it turns out bottom was made yesterday.

    Think about it – below Realised price, below 200 Weekly sma and almost near past ATH. But it was obvious Watson, what were you thinking…

    On the other hand if it wasn’t – Hey Watson, what were you thinking – fighting the fed?

  13. Key crypto linked equities like MSTR and COIN seem to be showing a reluctance to breach their previous lows despite those lows having occurred earlier when Bitcoin was in high 20ks. Might that mean tradefi is coming to an end to its Bitcoin bearishness?

    Meanwhile the famous 21k MSTR margin call may have come to pass. So what came of it? Nothing burger.

  14. Well on the weekly chart BTC has officially hit oversold (26.8) depending on where the weekly price closes. Any time the weekly RSI got this low it was more or less a bottom. Also tagged and quickly pierced the 200 weekly MA at around $22353 which when the price has hit and pierced was a bottoming signal. Does that mean it could be the same result this time? Guess we will find out.

  15. It’s a meltdown of Titanic proportions in crypto and one thing is clear: the Saylors go down with the ship

  16. Lot of talk in recent days on BFX longs. What’s the latest situation and how come those aren’t liquidated?

  17. I’m buying more here. Tradfi looks poised to bounce and the price seems like a great bargain. Maybe we haven’t hit the bottom, but I don’t think I’ll ever be angry at myself for buying at 22k. To me, r/r favors a buy right now.

    I think yesterday was an overreaction/overcorrection in response to a combination of factors – tradfi entering bear market, high CPI print, and Celsius problem. I’ll be curious to see what happens if the stock market bounces today.

  18. What does a bottom look like ? Are they obvious or do you only know you had one a few weeks/months after it happened

  19. Bear div on the hourly points to new lows (short-term) unless bulls pull their socks up and/or leveraged shorts become a crowded trade.

  20. >Wu Blockchain
    >Investigations by Uppsala Security and CoinDesk Korea revealed that the attackers who hit Terra were not the rumoured Wall Street whales, but the wallets and internal behavior managed by Terraform Labs itself, South Korean prosecutors also confirmed.

    Apologize to Citadel and Blackrock, you tinfoil hat MFers. The villain was your own stupid coin.

  21. Here’s me reading way to much into something. Last night Celsius added 1,501btc to its Maker collateral. Not 1,500. 1,501.

  22. It’s January 24th 2023, the price is at $35k, and you haven’t bought back after selling under $28k. You could’ve taken a nice profit after the price was crabbing along around the $23k line for months while every now and then going just below the $21k marker. The trend has been showing signs of recovery and now you’re looking for a better opportunity to buy back in to minimize losses. That opportunity comes at $32k but you think you can do better, and so the opportunity passes. It’s now February 13th, the price is shooting past $42k without signs of slowing down. You still haven’t bought back and you start feeling like hot needles are piercing through your body every time you think about it. It’s a hard time getting to sleep, you’re distracted from everything else in life, and generally having a very bad time. You tell yourself that after $45k you’ll buy back in, no matter what, and as it passes that price you do nothing; you decide to wait for a better opportunity below $45k, but whatever the price does, yet again you are never satisfied. After the price reaches $50k on March 8th you buy back in and as you do, the price immediately drops to $45k. You’re done. You’re over it. Fuck Bitcoin and fuck everything. It can go to $0 for all you care. You’ll just find a better paying job or even consider playing the lottery, but you’ll stop looking at the charts.

    January 2024, the price has blasted past the previous ATH, into unknown territories. You see the news headlines and remember your position, and you start busting open the calculator and all the losses are forgotten as you force yourself not to think about what could have been.

    This is what my first crash was like. What I’ve learned from it is to never let any investment distract you from living, to never do a trade feeling flustered, and to always zoom way the fuck out and look ahead into the future.

  23. I think another -25% is due if miners capitulate (they are better funded this time so maybe they don’t), after that I guess we will have months of sideways until the bull starts running again. It’s amazing how the cycles repeat over and over while bitcoin adoption grows.

  24. So we are finally below the 200W MA – historically the risk is limited from there, seems to me thats as good as it gets

  25. u/EagleGod is now leading the “Guess the Low” contest with a guess of $20,844.90. Out of 64 original entries, 18 are still in the running, 10 of which have guesses over $18K.

  26. When’s the Fed meeting? Will the price go up and down several K as JP speaks slowly in a dramatic tone, teasing every BPS out of his lips like slow-motion footage in a movie?

  27. https://twitter.com/Tree_of_Alpha/status/1536682638173519873

    It would be hilarious if 3AC is insolvent. Zhu Su and Kyle Davies fall for their own psyops?

  28. There won’t be a true bottom until stocks haven’t bottomed. There is NO DECOUPLING. And stocks haven’t bottomed yet, we just entered the official bear in S&P 500. This has a lot of months to go.

  29. I’ve been DCA’ing this dip. I think a relief rally may come soon, but in longer time frames, we will most likely continue to drop. I’ll probably go in heavy if we test or come near the 300W SMA. Hang in there folks!

  30. Well if this has made one thing clear, is that nobody knows shit. The calls for 30k being great support have turned into ‘no way we go below 20k’. Trading with an emotional bias is rarely fruitful. Be prepared for anything

  31. Everything is going as planned. If you have any doubts read my prior posts related to this bear market.

    Hit $22k ✓

    Wicked below ✓

    No need to bite your nails as long as we don’t settle below $20k for more than 24 hours. I think we’ve seen the capitulation that we’ve been waiting for (though Bitcoin is good at proving us wrong).

    I did get large amount locked up (lost ?) in Celsius which didn’t go according to plans. On the other hand I had participated in lending across 8 platforms to diversify my risk and have made more over the past 24 months in interest than I potentially lost to Celsius. With that said, no more lending in a bear market and all my other funds are now in my cold storage.

    If you have dry powder go load up and eat ramen for the next 6 months and…

    Have a Happy Day!

  32. Welp, I don’t think I caught the actual bottom (but so far, I seem pretty close).

    On linears, I’m still holding onto a monster–looking to close before-or-during FOMC this week.

    I started buying back my spot BTC that I sold in the 60’s under-$25K and eager to continue DCA’ing.

    Went for a drive and a burger last night to think all this through. Bitcoin isn’t going anywhere. Don’t get shaken out.

  33. Frankly, with 100x more interest in crypto and growing the number of crypto investors 100x, how long do people think we can actually stick down here before you run out of sellers and buyers have to start chasing price upwards?

    Sure they can engineer a quick big drop. But look at the volume

    Current 3D candle on Binance BTCUSD 9.2 billion and 391K BTC changed hands

    During the bottom of covid drop to $3782 in that 3D candle 3.55 billion and 679K BTC changed hands

    During the bottom of last cycle bear market in that 3D candle, .37 billion and 114K coins changed hands

    During the $20,000 ATH last cycle in that 3D candle .41 billion and 22K coins changed hands

    BTC is bigger than it ever was, at a price this low there simply isn’t enough sales pressure to match the buying power of millions of people doing their weekly buys

    Sellers simply can’t suppress the price down here long term. Not with how many coins are changing hands every day at these prices. There is only so many coins you can shake loose with panic

  34. Buy-the-dip-bot update:

    Still buying. The average buy price is working its way down due to our recent dips. In total, it has bought 0.01942 BTC at an average price of $32,207. Total spend: $625, current value: $428, for a loss of $197.

    Buying BTC using this bot is performing at -32% compared to -54.18% if you had lump-summed the same money over the same time period.

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