[Daily Discussion] – Tuesday, July 19, 2022

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[Daily Discussion] - Tuesday, July 19, 2022

38 thoughts on “[Daily Discussion] – Tuesday, July 19, 2022”

  1. As you guys know I’ve been a raging bull lately and now with that strong 4hr close above 23k, I think this is going to 29k. 29k would be a proper weekly/monthly retest and my target for the long. I expect a very strong reaction at 26.5k on the initial hit there but overall, I think this is going to 29k. https://www.tradingview.com/x/NoChNOoo/

    Those numbers might seem worlds away but it’s not, they’re only ~20% from current prices.

    I’ve already added aplenty to my long and now my average entry is 21887. The hardest part is going to be to sit on my hands and do nothing. I’m usually very quick to take profits because price almost always revisits your entry (cause most of the time it’s ranging) but I have a note written down in front of me staring at me all year to make it a habit to hold a leveraged trend trade open until it hits a high-time-frame target. And I think this is the first opportunity I see to do that. The stop is set, the tp’s are set, so I think I will literally just log out and use a subaccount for other things in the meantime.

    And then here’s the fun part: If we gain 29k, then 38k is next, then 46-47k. Then down to new lows most likely (9-11k).

  2. As I type this, BTC is above the 50-D SMA. BTC hasn’t closed above the 50-D since 10 Apr 2022 when it was just over $42K.

  3. I’m tempted to take some profit on my spot buys but this has legs.

    Let β€˜er ride.

    22750 is a great stop.

  4. The mismanagement of funds by all these lending groups is appauling. They were all providing loans so 3 arrows could buy shit coins. Absolute negligence.

  5. Been many firsts this cycle so I suppose we will see 200 wma (22.7k) and realised price (21.9k) broken again despite having been retaken. Meme breaker cycle it is. Destroy ze rulez .

  6. Any thoughts from people here on Hayes’s recent blog post? Love reading his takes.. curious to hear other opinions: https://blog.bitmex.com/samurai-knight-yankee/

  7. A new High Pole warning on the Point & Figure chart:


    The column is currently 21 boxes high. A 50% retrace would go back to $21.2K. The last High Pole was retraced in its entirety and beyond, and resulted in a Low Pole warning. That Low Pole was retraced in its entirety, and here we are. The formation we’re coming out of is 14 columns wide, which is on the larger side and suggests a larger move.

  8. another stop out

    this is right near the channel top on the 4H chart, so back into a 10x short at $23,510 with stop losses at $23,620

    if we get to $24K I stop shorting because it would mean a breakout of the channel to the upside

  9. This is a fake pump, guys. Whales are selling to other sea creatures that are fomo-ing. Its a trap! https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ

  10. Is MSTR always supposed to react at a leverage to Bitcoin or how the heck is this stock valued? I like it but I’m wondering if it at some point does it become overvalued? What should MSTR be at if BTC is at their break-even at 31.xx?

  11. Good to see some signs of life in the market and ol grandad. Dont know how much more steam it has, but its something!

  12. Now might be a good time to short because it looks like price has just hit the downtrend line at approx $23,600 . But I’m not shorting or selling, because this is bitcoin and anything could happen.

  13. Just shorted x1 (spot) $23.500, right at the resistance line. Will close a part of it around 22k, perhaps all the way down to 20k ish.

    E: also shorted #2 at $1570.

  14. We are starting to slow down. I am starting to short now. I see reducing volume and RSI going down and bearish divergence on the 15 min chart. We may go higher later, but now a pull back first. Entry price 23,385.

  15. I have a feeling that everyone who went short today feels like quite the silly goose

  16. It doesn’t seem like a run to $30k can happen because of the precedence in the timeline of the previous two bear markets.

    But…the technicals pretty much indicate that it’s thin air between here an $30k.

    Would be epic if whales short the ETHBTC ratio here & swap to pumping Bitcoin.

  17. Netflix just beat their earnings pretty big. In short, more green to come in tradfi despite already running up pretty good. Tread lightly and think twice about shorts

  18. Brutal. My indicators are running out of space for the overbought levels, lol.

    And that poor guy got stoped again. πŸ‘€

  19. Update on my 5x leverage long from $18.8k a few weeks ago:

    Still 5x leverage long, still no plans to close.

  20. lol I had a feeling the moment posts about shorts suddenly started getting upvoted in here that we were near a local bottom.

  21. Great. We are off to greener pastures. The tradfi will rally the whole summer and takes the corn with it. But come September? Looks tricky. But 20k will hold.

    End of my Tarot session. Candles off. Alexa, play ambient music.

  22. After adding more funds at a higher price I am now pulling out of my short at around 1% profit since we made a higher high and higher low, which I didn’t expect and also going to bed. Good luck to other shorters, I think we can still go lower, 15 min RSI seems to go down.

  23. 17,500 BTC transferred from a Coinbase wallet to an unknown wallet in 5 tx within 1 minute of each other.

  24. Update from my post yesterday. Pretty good r/r for a short right now. Hit long-term downtrend resistance.

    On the weekly this resistance is steep af so I am expecting it to be broken eventually, but probably not on the first attempt. The daily RSI is looking toppy, I don’t think we have enough steam here to bring it into overbought territory (70+) yet.


    If you’re bullish and think we will keep climbing, previous resistance turned support might be a good entry, currently around 21.5k.

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