[Daily Discussion] – Tuesday, January 11, 2022

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26 thoughts on “[Daily Discussion] – Tuesday, January 11, 2022”

  1. Always assume the opposite of this will happen

    https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1480902448982024193

  2. Where’s the “day number __ inside the world’s longest right shoulder” guy from last year? Going to need him again soon…

  3. Do we really have to have a dump fake out every morning when the US market opens?

  4. I really thought even a futures ETF would pump the price as lots of new money would be able to participate. Obviously spot would be way better, but I was quite optimistic. I’ve now decided even more that I have no fucking idea about anything.

    Is there any case to be made that a spot ETF would dump the price too? (Other than a sell the news quickie dump?)

  5. Lots of bitcoin ruining the environment via mining fud on Reddit this morning.

  6. Every form of NVT has hit 3 or 4 year lows in either December or January. From a value transacted over the network perspective, this is the most oversold Bitcoin has been since Dec 2018, lower than even the March 2020 lows.

    Just to add another related tidbit, the amount of Coin that moved in October and December of this year is pretty insane. Over 350k BTC per day were moved during both October and December of this year, with the 30 day moving average for each month peaking over 380k. We haven’t seen this much coin move in a month on chain since late 2017/early ’18. Somewhat significantly higher than the amount that was moved during the late ’18 early ’19 meme triangle crash. In hindsight, I’m actually surprised we didn’t have more volatile price action in both Oct and Dec given how much coin has been moving on chain.

  7. I do think 40k is the new 6k.
    We’ll bounce a few times into a capitulation event later this year and then is go time again.

    Retail is irrelevant rn, as shown in second half of 2021. Its a Player Vs Player market where “swing trading” whales compete vs “long term holder” whales.

    We are just observers, that should just dca into next halving/fully global adoption

  8. “Fidelity Investments Canada ULC, one of the top investment management firms in Canada, today announced plans to add a small allocation to Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF™ within Fidelity All-in-One Growth ETF and Fidelity All-in-One Balanced ETF and corresponding mutual fund versions. “

    https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/fidelity-all-in-one-etfs-to-add-bitcoin-exposure-and-risk-rating-changes-836243069.html

    Fidelity USA ETF SEC decision by Jan 27.

    Long shot, but hey, a man can dream.

    Meanwhile, Canada keeps stacking. That is a broadly owned product, and is a pretty strong bullish vote from a major player.

  9. Right now, if you take a look at today’s Nasdaq composite chart, it looks exactly like the Bitcoin chart.

    Opening: dump -> rise -> dump -> rise

    Bitcoin: dump -> rise -> dump -> rise

    With this strong of a correlation, I suspect that whether Bitcoin will go up from here and onward in the next few weeks can be otherwise stated into whether Nasdaq composite chart will go up from this point forward.

  10. Your daily dose of hopium:

    Btc entering buy zone on dormancy flow. As with all things, just one other indicator amongst a sea of them. Holders are hodling.

    https://twitter.com/WClementeIII/status/1480913730078654477?t=zkzk2j2RXt4QWdzOlOfviA&s=19

  11. A favorable CPI tomorrow and I wouldn’t be surprised if we teleport directly back to 48k

  12. So long as things don’t fall apart here in the next few days, and equity markets bounce as they seem to be in the process of doing, this is my roadmap:

    https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/3/3AAUnd5C.png

  13. Adding a bit of data from my prior post on correlation between Bitcoin and stocks.

    https://decrypt.co/90154/bitcoins-correlation-with-sp-500-nasdaq-hits-highest-level-since-july-2020

    Current correlation is at 0.61 and 0.58 with S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which is the highest in about 1.5 years.

  14. Props to everyone who figured the tightening narrative had run it’s course at the point of max fear and capitulation.

    Personally I stayed hedged into Powell’s hearing today. Hope the CPI tomorrow is another point of relief.

  15. I’m in the US Market– I’m looking to implement a bot trading strategy. Is it safe to use KuCoin? Or should I stick with Binance US? I keep seeing mixed reviews about KuCoin in the US and I don’t want to risk a large amount of capital if it’s a concern.

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