[Daily Discussion] – Thursday, June 30, 2022

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[Daily Discussion] - Thursday, June 30, 2022

33 thoughts on “[Daily Discussion] – Thursday, June 30, 2022”

  1. At least this cycle has given a few things to laugh about:

    https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1411271233656672258

    https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1350878056676618241

    https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1347515257791516676

    https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1373552028945846272

  2. Hey All,

    Still slowly iterating on this tool, beginning phases of just giving a realtime look at price differences in the same pair across markets.

    https://asset.gift/tools/arbitrage-map

    Any suggestions on what columns I should add for metrics?

  3. Stopped out of long. Moral: don’t sleep

    Have vomit bucket ready; waiting to see market open. Might be exciting.

  4. Welp my stop lost got hit, now time for a reversal to make me feel stupid for my decision.

  5. Good news everyone. BTC spot ETF approved in Amsterdam gonna lauch next month. I doubt it will have a big effect now but during next bull it s another gateway for more money to pour.

  6. when there is doomer memes on r/buttcoin , bottom is in

    when there is WAGMI memes on r/bitcoin , it’s time to sell

    almost too easy?

  7. FT wrote an opinion on FEDs rate policies. There’s a third way that they did in the 70’s – flip flopping between addressing inflation vs employment for a few years, which ends up slowly and painfully wrecking everything.

  8. India, Russia, and China are all starting to trade with each other without USD. More countries will follow. Dollar is doomed, bitcoin still has a chance.

    Fed pivot can’t come soon enough, but probably not until September or October. Until then we must suffer.

    > This dire outlook has been long coming. The current debate about inflation and whether the Fed’s monetary moves have been too late or too aggressive misses the point. The U.S. has been on an unsustainable fiscal and financial path for a long time. We are beginning to see the inevitable result.

  9. Everyone at >$40k: “if it ever drops to $20k, I’ll be backing up a fleet of trucks!”

    Everyone at <$20k: crickets

  10. With tradfi dumping and 0 bounce in bitcoin, I think we’ll head lower. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a new low, too. It would actually be pretty nice to see a bullish divergence on the daily, which means a lower low in price but a higher low in RSI. Around 16.5-17k would probably be a really good buy.

  11. Nouriel Roubini, the famously anti-crypto economist, wrote an article about something other than stupid FUD about bitcoin.

    https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stagflationary-debt-crisis-by-nouriel-roubini-2022-06

    He calls for stagflation, recession, pain, wringing of hands, gnashing of teeth, fire and brimstone, widespread misery, and for the Detroit Lions to win the NFC North. Just kidding about that last part, that’d be stupid.

  12. As an aside, when the fuck did Nic Carter become an ETHtard?!

    He was one of Bitcoin’s biggest advocates.

  13. https://www.theblock.co/post/155069/ftx-walked-away-from-celsius-deal

    &#x200B;

    Ta Da!!! … Oh… it’s gone!

  14. Another step in EU regulating crypto transfers. So far on track to take effect in 2024.

    > On Wednesday, E.U. negotiators signed a provisional agreement for the bloc’s first rules on tracing transfers of crypto assets like bitcoin…

    > When a crypto asset changes hands, information on both the source and the beneficiary would have to be stored on both sides of the transfer, according to the new rules.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/crypto/crypto-tranfers-follow-bank-rules-new-eu-regulations-rcna36102

    This is the one that has some preliminary clauses about ban on self-hosted crypto wallets because it would be impossible to check all this stuff for individuals.

  15. Jacobi Asset Management to launch Europe’s first Bitcoin spot ETF on Euronext Amsterdam:

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/jacobi-asset-management-launch-europes-first-bitcoin-etf-euronext-2022-06-30/

  16. There is an unlikely but plausible scenario where we go below 1k: If MicroStrategy’s liquidation price is hit around 3k and they get a margin call forcing them to liquidate their assets. I am gonna leave 5% of cash aside for that possibility.

  17. I think there’s a good chance that this was it for now, relief rally to 26k wouldn’t surprise me.

  18. https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/samsung-to-design-3nm-chips-used-to-mine-bitcoin

    Probably nothing.

  19. Given the low-ish volume bounce at $19k, it seems the next psychological breakpoint we fall down to will be at $15k to draw in more “buy the dip” liquidity. Place your bets gentilemen!

  20. Does this carry any weight?
    https://finbold.com/bank-for-international-settlements-to-allow-banks-to-keep-1-of-reserves-in-bitcoin/

  21. Contemplating on possible candidates for bottom of the cycle ASSUMING that 17.5K does not hold. It is still of course possible that 17.5K does hold and that was the local bottom of this cycle. But if not, I would be looking at these levels.

    &#x200B;

    1. 12-14K range: this was the local top from 2019 and there is some prior volume here as well. I believe this range would be roughly 80-85% from the ATH level of 69K, which is roughly similar to the type of drop from ATH we saw from the past cycle. There is strong likelihood that this area would be the low point of this cycle. 30% likelihood.
    2. 10-11K range: 10K is psychologically a huge price level even from the last cycle and is around the level where there will be very strong demand for Bitcoin. If 10K were to be the low for this cycle, it has to probably wick down here and then bounce immensely strong (like a 30-40% bounce from here) to never visit here again. If it keeps on hitting 10K, then we would go further down. I personally think that this will be the low level for this cycle and buying here would be pretty comforting knowing that in the next bull cycle, you will at least get 10K -> 100K of 10x in buys here. 50% likelihood
    3. 6-7K range: I think if we go under 10K, then the price will like to gravitate towards the 6-7K range of summer 2018. This will be terrible and probably caused by massive global economic crisis, additional 20-30% down in tradfi, etc. Ironically, I would be less willing to buy at this level compared to the 10-11K range as psychologically, this level signals long stagnancy from summer of 2018. If we drop here, I would be less sure about going back up to the previous ATH for the next cycle. 15% likelihood
    4. 3-4K range: Only a black swan event (e.g. Tether collapse) coupled with the global economic crisis and massive cascading liquidations/margin calls will get us here. If we get to this level, it would seem like everything was for naught the past 5-6 years. I highly doubt that we get here, but if we do, then Bitcoin would need to do 5x 6x to get to the current dreaded level of 19-20K. 5% likelihood
  22. With everything happening with Celsius, 3AC and …, I thought I would share this Bible verse with everyone.

    From Genesis 38:9

    >And Onan knew that the seed should not be his; and it came to pass, when he went in unto his brother’s wife, that he spilled it on the ground, lest that he should give seed to his brother.https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Genesis%2038%3A9&version=KJV

    In other words, not your seeds not your coins. Also, don’t go giving your brother’s wife your seed even if he asks for it.

  23. IMO there will be absolutely no upward moves until clarity on the Celsius fiasco and 3 arrows shit resolves. Let’s be honest, Blockfi is probably in some shit too, just to a lesser extent. I don’t know when to expect all relevant details to be disclosed.

    Celsius is on the cover of Wall Street Journal today as the biggest story. It’s being spun as a big last laugh from the banks, thanks for playing! Apparently Celsius touted itself as safer than banks… Really?? No way anyone actually thought that…

    I presume Celsius is probably bleeding money to service debts they have, and they will go under soon as their cash flow is essentially 0 at this point, just a matter of time. A market upturn might help the situation for them or prolong the time they have to kick the can down the road, but my guess is smart money that can move the market knows this, and it’s time to kill them off.

    Yeah it’s a shit show, and this is why we can’t have nice things

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