[Daily Discussion] – Thursday, June 16, 2022

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[Daily Discussion] - Thursday, June 16, 2022

19 thoughts on “[Daily Discussion] – Thursday, June 16, 2022”

  1. Take it nice and slow lads. I think we will either dump soon depending on how macro opens or go sideways for awhile, at least until Sunday.

  2. So the bears and Gareth Soloways of the world got their 20k bitcoin. Fair play as Solloway called it during the run up to 69k.

    So is that the line in the sand now. They called it and we got it or do the bears carry on with the trend and start aiming for even lower numbers.

  3. I have ignored this sub for the last year and just heard about Luna and Celsius? What is this crap? Did people not learn after bitconnect?

    ​

    Edit: holy shit people didnt learn at all. People really allowed themselves to get scammed by the bitconnect model and convinced themselves that Luna and Celsius were different…. wow I can’t feel sympathy for these people.

  4. Scanning the old posts on here is amusing;

    https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/u5gx7l/planb_explains_why_bitcoin_wont_drop_to_245k_again/

  5. I think the USDC situation is worth analyzing. It’s gaining on USDT a lot the last couple days.

  6. Is anyone else not convinced in this bounce, for the sole reason that altcoins rebounded too quickly and too strongly?

  7. Realised price now 22897 and biggest nearby bar on the on-chain volume profile at 22200 (source: whalemap).

    Also, LTH MVRV = 0.97 and LTH SOPR = 0.63 (source: glassnode).

    That we are at a stage where even LTH (and this, given it is defines as metric based on utxos > 155 days, includes many who bought in earlier stages of this cycle) are booking losses and underwater, indicates by historical standards that we are very close to a bottom. But then you probably realised that anyway…

  8. With both stocks and crypto we are firmly in the territory where mainstream is predicting further declines because of the usual interest rates, inflation, war, and supply chain problems. The trouble is that they are thinking too slow. We’ve already fallen from $70K to $20K because of those factors.

    To keep going lower these factors need to increase in severity or there needs to be new reasons to keep falling lower.

    Very reminiscent of how $100K was guaranteed just because the price was going up.

    Nows the time to be thinking what’s next. And honestly we should be expecting:

    1. Ukraine and Russia to make peace
    2. Inflation YoY measurements to slow down or decline (we won’t post 8% inflation in Q2 2022 and then 8% inflation again in Q2 2023)
    3. Supply chain issues get fixed. There’s so much profit at stake that every company is working on fixing
  9. What do you think the bottom for SP500 will be? It pains me to ask this in a Bitcoin trading thread, but I think the two seem unfortunately related.

  10. Some of the indicators are showing that this is a decent buy zone but after much thinking of all the “grey” swans, I don’t think we’re in the final capitulation phase just yet:

    1. Alts are still way too high
    2. Celsius, 3AC still haven’t blown up yet
    3. Potential USDT troubles ahead
    4. Market maybe needing time to show the ugliness of 75 bps
    5. BTC.D not even at 50% yet
    6. Everyone seems short on cash

    I’ll save my bullets for another day. But we should be still a few months away from the bottom. Not in a hurry.

  11. How do liquidations actually work? Do they get dumped as market orders immediately or are they spaced out over time and even put in as limit orders?

    Point being – what is driving the sell pressure as price is attempting to climb up from here? Is that too somehow driven by liquidations?

  12. oil down -5% this week, could mean that recession is being priced in (or maybe it’s just a healthy pullback)

  13. Imo, I think we have hit the bottom at $20k. But, we now face 12 months of frustrating stagnation and fake outs in both directions. There is no gain in selling coins now, unless you desperately need cash, but it’s a good time to accumulate. The halving is 600 days away and bull markets seem to always happen after the halving.

  14. Interesting comment from Nic Carter yesterday that I didn’t see mentioned here:

    > Miner selling was a key catalyst I was looking for to signal the bottom, granted it’s not over but it’s important that a lot of it apparently happened already

    https://nitter.net/nic__carter/status/1537188052044587010#m

  15. Remember summer 2020 and beyond when there was a growing belief that institutional interest in Bitcoin had made the new normal of corrections to be 20% or thereabouts rather than the 40% seen in the 2017 cycle?

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