[Daily Discussion] – Thursday, July 14, 2022

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[Daily Discussion] - Thursday, July 14, 2022

34 thoughts on “[Daily Discussion] – Thursday, July 14, 2022”

  1. What do people think the likelihood of a 100bps hike is?
    75 was the expectation for a 8.8% CPI prediction which was exceeded. I know they want a “soft landing”, but we’ve tried easing into it and inflation is still trending up.

    If I recall correctly, last months expectation was 50bps, but CPI came in higher than expected so we saw 75bps. Can we expect another jump up this time?

  2. Just imagine… we’re only a few days left of having to see “daily reminder this is the bottom”…

    At least until the next one comes along that surely thinks THEY’RE smarter than the last one calling the first bottom they see…

  3. My daily, ‘the bottom is in post’, since the bottom on the 18th of June

  4. Little do the plebs realise that when FUD is cleared, BTC always trades at a heavy premium to the 200 wma or realised price. Ironically, buying then is way more risky and subject to heavy drawdowns. But if they want to buy in only at multiples higher when ‘going to zero’ headlines aren’t in the face then OK – good on them….and good on us.

  5. Trading patterns don’t necessarily always work but when a Sad Jabba pops up we all know where it’s headed.


    edit: Depends if we get the waterpipe extension

  6. Celcius bankruptcy is literally the lead story on the FT website right now.
    How far we have come.

  7. A question about behavioral finance:

    Imagine an asset that currently trades in the market.

    God descends on the earth for a few minutes and provides the following statement which no one doubts the truth about (because this is God):

    ‘This asset has a 95% probability of 100xing over 15 years but also has a 95% probability of a 99% drawdown from current price at some point over this 15 year period.’

    Once this announcement is made, what would you say would be the likely shape of the path of the asset’s price over 15 years?

  8. Great thread on Lightning adoption: https://twitter.com/gladstein/status/1547250695153356800?s=21&t=dq8AjNKWRewy17frdckjuQ

    Unsurprisingly, with low onchain fees, it is not being used much.

  9. Stonks continuing to tank, Bitcoin up (measuring from 4 pm yesterday for an apples-to-apples comparison).

    This is the start of something big. Yuge.

  10. Wow, the flippening actually happened. Never before in BTC history (except fat finger wicks.) BTCEUR higher than BTCUSD.

    edit: EURUSD going slightly above 1 again, lasted like 90 mins, obv might go below later again.

  11. Imagine Bitcoin actually starts working as an inflation hedge at some point and rips way before stocks, hah. One can hope..

  12. What a glorious bottom we have found.

    Imagine saying 3 years ago that the next cycle bottom would be ~20k

  13. Just waiting for this to get smacked down. My dr says I have “battered bull syndrome”, whatever that means.

  14. Grabbed a coin at $19.8 k. If $17.5 k is retested and fails I’ll put my next buy at $14 k.

  15. Fed this fed that, cpi this, ppi here, fed comment here. Amazing how it turned out to be like this huh?

  16. A reminder that BTC went from $69k -> $18k due to not only (1) macro rate-hike fears, but also (2) the whole Luna/3AC/Voyager/Celsius credit crisis fiasco.

    One could reasonably argue that while Fed tightening is indeed bad for crypto markets, BTC likely would have only deflated to around the $30k-40k on that factor alone.

    So with the crypto credit crisis mostly resolved now, it gives some breathing room for BTC to swing back to a less exaggerated $30k-40k range as if the whole UST cascade didn’t happen. Disclaimer: pure speculation

  17. Doth mine eyes deceive? SPY -0.8% and BTC +2.2%?

    Could it be? The great decoupling…

  18. Well, well, my yellow line + bullish divergence prediction is doing very good right now, even with bad CPI: https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/vx1v92/comment/ifv31t1/
    Even though the little CPI crash would have probably warrant a stop loss at that point.

  19. What do you reckon guys, 21,400ish tomorrow and then fizzle down for the weekend? Not like I’m brave enough to bet on it, I’ll just hodl…

  20. Still just ranging imo through goblin town. Nothing to get excited about.

    All my homies in the thread are cool tho 😎

  21. I sold some at 19.8 this morning to buy back lower and FOMO’d back in at 20.3.

    I’m so good at trading.

  22. If I were a BTC whale with my other whale friends I’d just rip the price up into another ATH by December, just to crash it back to 30K.

    Then I would laugh and laugh and laugh and maybe post some bobo memes on 4chan.

    This is the way.

  23. Update on the 5x leverage long from $18.8k a while back:

    Still 5x leverage long, still no plans to close any time soon

  24. Real estate isn’t even flinching at these rate hikes yet. Be patient stack cash and you will be rewarded in Dec-March. Unless Biden starts taking a stance to bump up his poll numbers this thing hasn’t even started yet.

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