[Daily Discussion] – Thursday, January 06, 2022

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24 thoughts on “[Daily Discussion] – Thursday, January 06, 2022”

  1. That panic I feel today, makes me think I might be a bit over-invested. This drop (in theory, no margin calls) cost me about 2 years of my working income.

    We were looking for houses the last months, a prolonged bear market would put that on ice. I wasn’t very keen on paying such inflated prices anyway, I tell myself.

  2. Market looks so bad that Plan B had to pivot into beeing a Covid Conspiracy Theorist instead of a Crypto Shill.

    I guess soon we will all have to find new jobs.

  3. Think of the bandaid that was ripped off yesterday, it will bleed some at first, but after two days, the blood dries up and some green purple pus is left. The blood hardened, your soul hardened and your portfolio hardened. Its yucky at first, but you will look back at the scar in 3 months time, and remember the experience you had today. And you will smile, thinking that you look cool for the ladies. Ladies love scars

  4. PnF Update

    Chart here: https://imgur.com/gallery/uDqZzor

    How messed up was yesterday? I know that old timers like me often say, “This shit happens all the time—get used to it.” I am NEVER going to get used to that kind of drop. It is literally breathtaking.

    That said, here we are.

    Is this the end of Rico? (Its a movie reference.) Unlike Rico, this is probably not the end of bitcoin. But the other day I thought we would see a recovery in weeks. I think we are looking at a couple of months now at least.

    The economy is about to take a big shit. The interest rates are going to start moving up. And who knows what kind of stuff is going to happen in the geo-political world. Based on the tone I am seeing around the internet today, I think we should hunker down and get ready for winter.

    So, yesterday we broke down. The price formed a bearish triangle. That is pretty dire. The fact that there was no local support was pretty evident. We blew through the low pole warning and we are floundering for some legs. It is way too early to start calling bottoms.

    Just for giggles, the only remaining unfilled High Pole Warning target is down at $34,532. That is the only “support” on the chart going down a long, long way. I am not predicting that—its just that is nature of the market right now.

    A low pole recovery target is up around $45,200. I would anticipate cheers and a quick retreat from that level as those who are buying the dip—and those still terrified will bail at that point.

    The formation is still five columns wide. But with a drop like this, it matters little.

    The trend level is $54,306. At this moment that is 24 boxes away. We probably won’t come close to approaching that level again until March. Stranger things have happened—but in a bear cycle we have to “assume” a negative bias. Boy…that came true in spades, no?

    My advice? Not to take advice from people on the internet. If you haven’t established your own levels and tolerance for pain—there is no “teaching you” now. The school of “getting your balls handed to you” is open and a seat is waiting in the front row.

    This will end. Because…”this shit happens all the time.”™ LOL.

    Good luck and keep laughing.

  5. When all is said and done, we moved down about 10% in a week and 12% in a month. We also moved that much up in a week in the last week of December. Why such heavy drama and reactions today? There have surely been more dramatic periods.

  6. When do y’all think we’ll get PA again that isn’t just liquidation events? Or is that all btc is now?

  7. Don’t forget that something like 30-40% of all dollars in existence were printed this past year. Nobody knows what will come of that, but very few predictions are good.

    Will Bitcoin blossom into an inflation hedge? God I hope so. Buckle up, and remember none of us know what the hell we’re doing.

  8. I still think we have at least one more push lower, like in Sept. I wanna see 39k before I start looking for bottom picking opportunities. Support breaks like that tend not to turn around on a dime; they take some time to be digested and play out. Even if we pop here, revisiting at least 42k is likely.

  9. We are going to have a fun year. No past pattern to bank on, not even sure what kind of cycle we are in and no price predictions at least for noe. Will make for a different kind of daily discussion for one.

  10. What if this time we don’t pump or crash out of this range, but rather just slow bleed down past the December wick without much volatility or action. Now that would be max pain

  11. Those who think the past year’s PA was weird should see the March 2019 to March 2020 PA. You had a series of whipsaws which had higher highs and lower lows both to confuse people. Latter part of 2019 it was common for this sub to see comments suggesting bitcoin was eternally stuck in a casino use case. The first quarter of 2020 further reinforced this thought.

  12. Start looking forward to the infamous gbtc unlock pump, it have started around 10 days before unlocking, first unlock is on 31st of january and continues untill late feb. Historicly it have been pump before, dump the unlocks. Then soar on the last two, thats where most of big cash comes inn. We’re in a blackoutperiod untill late jan on most companies (the period before q4/ yty earnings are released. Companies cant disclose buys untill after) last big unlock was july 18th. We soared on the 20th of july. Same distinct pattern here as then.

  13. Shorts are up 86% vs a negligible amount for longs. It’s no wonder the price won’t go up. Every time it looks like it’s moving up it get shorted heavier.

    https://datamish.com/btcusd/24h

  14. I’m thinking at the very least we make another move up to 70k+. Is anyone else expecting a 5th wave here? https://www.tradingview.com/x/8x14kiRF/

  15. This looks like a good spot to short to me, which means it’s probably gonna pump instead

  16. Every day that passes is another day someone discovers and buys btc and they aren’t making any more.

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