[Daily Discussion] – Sunday, June 19, 2022

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[Daily Discussion] - Sunday, June 19, 2022

32 thoughts on “[Daily Discussion] – Sunday, June 19, 2022”

  1. I just can’t believe it. I have lost it all. All of it. I first bought in when it was only a wee seed, bout $3k. Was only a small amount, give or take $30. We had taco salad that night. I waited so long, only for market to go boom boom and I put in all my money. All. Of. It. It went to 69k and I kept putting more in. Was told we were above bull market support band so we should be bullish. Well I’ve been duped. All of my money is gone. It was not a small amount, good five figures. That’s a year of my work while I go to my studies. All for nothing, and there is nothing I can do. I could’ve done so much with that money, even bought my guinea pigs a castle. But I threw it all away on fake coins and I can’t forgive myself. It seemed like free money and why wouldn’t you put it into a free money machine? I’m gonna get my hair trimmed today but I will have it done tomorrow morning and I just can’t shake the fact I threw it all away. I’m gonna have to go into work and remember I am working for free since all of my money is gone. If I never discovered Reddit this would’ve never happened. I just am so disappointed in myself, can’t believe I fell for it. All I wanted is to make more money and instead I lost. I get laughed at now for wasting it all on pixel coins. I really thought it had a future, but what future is a nothing coin if it can’t keep even its value together during tougher times? Oh well, you win some if lose them. I am crying, I really just don’t know how to go about this. The sleepless nights, the shaking, crying, and pooping are too much to handle right now. I am hopeful I learned my lesson finally, which is do not get greedy and only put in what you can lose.

  2. From what I dimly understand, a capitulation towards USD 12,000 would see Celsius being obliterated while the drawdown in the price of Bitcoin would still leave us, percentage-wise, slightly above the 85 percent collapse, which was registered in the wake of the 2017 ATH.

    Having that said, 10,800 to me represents, on an psychological and emotional level, a line in the sand that must not be crossed for any substantial length of time IMHO (My second faint hope is that, against all odds, this bear market will end faster than the last one, which took almost exactly one year and the duration of which was a fair bit shorter than the 2014/15 bear market. Yet, these are faint hopes and mental last lines of defence.)

    It is bad enough that the price did not even 5x from the 2017 ATH.

    It is bad enough that the bull market lasted not a second longer than in 2017 but in fact was slightly shorter, if I am not mistaken.

    It is bad enough that once 20K had fallen, the price went through our old ATH and through 19K like a warm knife through butter and has apparently failed to bounce in any meaningful way, despite rock-bottom RSI indicators and “Plan B’s” projections and price bands now looking absolutely dreadful and mauled by the current crash.

    It is bad enough the worst phase of inflation for decades appears to have failed to act as a potent counterweight to the forces dragging BTC down, and it is bad enough that Bitcoin’s Sortino ratio is said to be at an all-time low. The fact that the now infamous and ridiculed Luna altoin apparently had the second-highest Sortino ratio in 2021 in the crypto space offers little comfort. What matters to me is that this indicator of risk-adjusted performance has been flashing red for BTC.

    In view of these trends, people holding BTC have increasingly had to lower their expectations and double down on their hope to be compensated for their unwavering trust at some point in the hopefully not too distant future. I was once a gold bug / PM hodler, and I also once held shares in Nautilus Minerals, which had ambitious plans that totally seemed to make sense, but for some reason, the changing CEOs seemed incapable of realising the project’s potential. I am not well-versed in finance and banking, but I thus have a rather keen feel for when months turn into years and when after years of waiting and hoping one’s expectations are dashed and one is forced to eventually draw a line and cut one’s losses.

    Bitcoin is a promising concept. Nevertheless, there is a distinctly bitter taste to the last four and a half years of BTC’s history and for all those who got in in the mid to high 10Ks. IMHO, and based on what people far more knowledgeable and intelligent than myself have written, there are growing indications that returns are diminishing too fast given that the downside risk remains very high. To me, 10,800 represents a line in the sand. Should it be breached, then my trust in Bitcoin’s future will be very seriously undermined. Mind you, Bitcoin might still be spectacularly successful at some point, eventually. The waterwheel, which had already been invented in ancient times, would eventually find widespread use in Europe – a long time later, after the Roman Empire and its system of slavery had collapsed. Let’s hope that history does not rhyme in this case and with a view to BTC’s price performance.

  3. Before we bottom we need two things:

    • All the defi contagion accounted for and liquidated. This will happen soon.
    • Macro markets need to bottom likely signaled by either the fed turning the printer back on or more massive government stimulus. This will happen later, hopefully by year’s end.

    So I expect more short term pain until defi flushes, followed by a modest bounce from these way oversold levels, and then drifting correlated with the nasdaq and eventual final capitulation hopefully later this year.

  4. This price starts to be a lifetime opportunity. It’s possible to wait for an even better entry price but it could get a miss pretty quick.

  5. How will bitcoin / crypto pump back up when interest rates are higher than before and will likely continue to rise?

  6. Am I overreacting or is there a point where for example binance or another big player needs to announce a btc strategy to pump the price and not let the story of bitcoin hurt too much? Its a hard sell for institutions too if previous aths meaningfully break #bitcoinbailout

  7. I often see people here saying that the bottom will be in when the Fed pivots. However, the market might rally when it expects the Fed to change course. That would be the case once inflation peaks and we see lower rates for two or three months. That peak could have already happened.

    On another note, I just took a look at /r/buttcoin after a long time and the mood there is quite ecstatic. I can understand why someone doesn’t see any use in crypto, but I cannot imagine myself celebrating and being this euphoric about something breaking or people losing money. Overall, it’s a pretty weird place.

  8. Latest Realised price =$22626 (source: whalemap)

    Bitcoin cycle bottoms have all been below this (like we are now) but once this level is reclaimed – which typically takes several months), it tends not to go below again in the cycle.

  9. Don’t know if this is relevant, but big short position are building up in traditional financial market. The crash in bitcoin may just be a lead indicator to wider problem. Any fund with significant exposure to crypto will have issues, and couple that with crash in the traditional market. This does not look good. US is not open on Monday, but Europe will open. Let’s see if contagion spreads.

  10. My YOLO bottom call from yesterday still holding. Bears tried to bring even more pain but it ended up a higher low at 18k. Looking excellent after getting the re-test. You can probably YOLO long the breakout at 20k, it’s gonna be a moneyprinter.

  11. #2 properly broke out above their ~$1020 resistance, let’s see if we can do >19.5k

    edit: there we go. Obv still 20k resistance, but seems doable to me.

  12. How do you even resist setting up a breakout long at 20k, it’s gonna be explosive brothas. I’m not saying 10x your stack for life-changing wealth but that’s how I’m feeling

  13. Imagine 20k doesn’t even get pierced and bears don’t even get stopped one time lmao

  14. I cash bought with a year’s expenses worth of cash.

    Surprising how much bitcoin you get with your dollar these days.

    edit: It could go as low as 10K and take over a year to recover. But really, the r/r is not there to wait to buy.

  15. At least for a while, those still looking to unwind and lower liquidation prices will look to sell into any breakout liquidity over 20k.

  16. If we don’t clear $22,000 today, I think it’s possible we get stuck in the trench between the 200 week and 300 week sma’s for a while.

    I would hope that the 300 would hold up to all retests, but the big economic picture will probably have an impact.

    Nevertheless, I bought at $17,800 yesterday. Additional buys are primed should we dip again.

  17. Just an argument against “This time it’s different, BTC has never been through a bear market in equities before”

    I mean, that is very true. On the flipside, I don’t think there’s any chance we could have seen these prices WITHOUT a full on bear market in equities. This type of drawdown caught everyone off-guard, because this time was supposed to be different.

    The usual BTC -> ATH -> Drop 85% -> Rebuy -> New ATH cycle just seemed too obvious. Who is going to sell BTC at <20K in a normal macro environment? This is the fear that was required for this move. So yes, this time it’s different. That’s why we’re here.

  18. https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/vfszpt/solend_the_largest_lending_market_on_solana_is/

    Shitcoin freezes people’s ability to trade because it’s afraid of massive drop from a whale liquidation lol

  19. Happy Father’s Day to big daddy Bitcoin. Hope he comes back soon from going out to get milk and cigarettes…

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