[Daily Discussion] – Sunday, January 09, 2022

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26 thoughts on “[Daily Discussion] – Sunday, January 09, 2022”

  1. Well based upon that insipid ‘green’ daily doji bounce, this is not the bottom.

    Went to bed with high high hopes we might continue the bounce and take my first look at price today to see that we’re already retracing.

    Tomorrow is the big day, expecting just ranging shite today.

  2. Do y’all follow people
    On Twitter for trades? Are these dudes legit like bigcheds, bob loukas, trader J,
    Ben Cowen is my favorite

  3. How is it claimed that the market views a crash is coming (be it stock or crypto) when it has not currently crashed? I mean the current price by definition is what the market thinks is the level it should be.

    Ofcourse individuals can take any view they wish but to say that the market sentiment is that a slide is likely is an oxymoron.

    Markets can take a view of volatility (options implied vol) but not future price itself. Few understand this.

  4. I’ve spent the last 5 days going balls deep into NFTs…. My conclusion is that they are here to stay, but ultimately a complete waste of time.

  5. I want that guy to come back that made really adventurous charts on tradingview.

    Price action is so boring but that guy could make it fun to watch anyway.

  6. How long do you think the bear market will last? I feel strongly it will be front run like everything else is now (halving, tops) and be shorter than a year. Everyone sees those massive gains that happened from 3k BTC to the top and wants in before the next guy.

    We may already be two months into the bear market. Although I wouldn’t be surprised to see the next bounce go to 70-80k and then the bear market start. But I would be surprised to see the bear market last even a whole year. I think it will just violently puke it all out quickly so we can start again as soon as possible.

  7. I think we’ve reached the bottom. Several people have sent me “bitcoin is a jenga tower about to collapse” CNBC articles that last few days. that usually means we’re at the bottom. Like…about to? where have you been for the last 2 months?

    I’ve stopped listening. They’re always wrong and a few months late.

  8. The charts on my watchlist look very similar this morning. Everything waits for bitcoin to take a direction.

  9. It wouldn’t shock me at all if we climb back to 45k and than dump back down and break 40k.

  10. Some Bull, Bear, and Crab charts:


    The first chart is price since the cycle top, assuming Oct 2021 was NOT the top. This is the Bull/Lengthening Cycles chart.

    The second chart is price since the cycle top, assuming Oct 2021 WAS the top. This is the Bear/Cycles Remain The Same chart.

    The third chart compares Jun 2019 to Apr 2021 (normalized to 2021 prices). This is the Crab chart.

    Pick the chart that fits your worldview.

    The last chart shows the ratio of the price to the 13-W SMA. Since 2018, there have been four times when the price has dropped below 0.7x the 13-W SMA. The last three have been great times to buy. The first was a few weeks after the Dec 2017 blow-off top.

    The ratio is currently 0.7536x. 0.7x the 13-W SMA is currently $38.7K, and dropping about $100/day. I laddered buys every $1K from $39K to $44K. Only the bottom two are left. My weekly DCA is still in place, but I’m going to start (and keep adding) to a buy at the 0.7x price, and adjust it once a week.

  11. Where is this much talked about Kazakhstan hashrate exit?


  12. Muh speed fans and fib time.

    Long setup invalidated if a break of 40k doesn’t reverse with an SFP/failed auction. And price naturally needs to remain pinned down by the upper .66 trend line for another 1.5 weeks.

  13. We’ve recovered to prices unseen since… 1 day ago!

    Stay cautiously optimistic, gents; if you must ejaculate your fiat, DCA with a healthy dose of long-term HODL expectations.

    Wouldn’t want to get caught in a blue tarp with your pants down.

  14. Here’s my Astrology for Dudes^TM.

    Assuming similarities between Apr-21 to Jul-21 and Nov-21 til ? and extrapolating that impulses are damped ~80%. Apologies for the trading pair, other charts are reserved for my long term notes.

  15. I just want to point out that Bitcoin is down nearly 40% from its ATH. This is an epic buy zone.

    And without getting carried away, even if you did a 2x leveraged position from here Bitcoin would have to hit 22k before you were liquidated.

    If you are considering buying, now is a great time to do it.

  16. Looking at the volume profile, the support between 40K and 30K is massive on the daily over the past year, and still very significant on the weekly going back > 5 years.

    Calls for 20K and below are delusional, barring some black swan.

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