[Daily Discussion] – Saturday, June 11, 2022

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[Daily Discussion] - Saturday, June 11, 2022

15 thoughts on “[Daily Discussion] – Saturday, June 11, 2022”

  1. IF China ban, war and Terra fuck-up hadn’t happened then where do you reckon we’d be sitting now? I remember watching YouTube vids last year spouting 140k but of course none of them accounted for external events..

  2. Holy shit, look at the top 100 on coingecko! Alts are shitting the bed.

    Makes me so happy.

  3. https://www.tradingview.com/x/L6oTgxlD

    I don’t see any reason we don’t at least retest that 25.4k wick. Price predictions don’t mean a thing so I’ll just keep DCAing and be prepared to load up if things really go south.

  4. Oh no, how terrible! despair and loathing, every thing is fucked.

    (Not really, but don’t tell the Bots. Classic Wyckoff again. Accumulate)

  5. They say we’ll reach the true bottom towards end of the year. So I’m not sure if we go to like 25k or 22k now, what would that even mean for the true bottom. 14k as some have predicted?

  6. Fed meeting is June 15, they’ll be speaking more hawkish than before due to the big miss in CPI but markets are awaiting to see how hawkish they’ll be. After that, markets will have all major information needed to fully price in macro downside for the time being until the next major set of economic data comes out.

    Jobs report for June will release July 8. CPI report for June will release July 13. Then the Fed meets again July 27. Fed will not slowdown on rate hikes until 1 of 2 things happen:

    1. Jobs report starts showing an uptick in unemployment
    2. CPI report shows CPI is consistently trending downwards rather than continuously tending upwards

    Right now the Fed has the luxury of only needing to address inflation since unemployment is still near historic lows. At some point, rate hikes will cause markets to fall so significantly that companies will begin to layoff employees at a greater rate than they’re hiring new ones which will cause unemployment to rise. If/when that occurs, the Fed will need to choose between addressing inflation or unemployment but not both. They will choose to address unemployment.

    S&P is now over 5 full months into a downtrend yet it hasn’t had a daily close in a bear market (>20% decline from peak) yet. When that happens, the likelihood of unemployment beginning to rise increases as companies seek to cut costs by laying off employees. We’re close, perhaps this week sometime after the Fed meeting is when the S&P finally closes in a bear market for the first time this year.

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