[Daily Discussion] – Saturday, July 02, 2022

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[Daily Discussion] - Saturday, July 02, 2022

17 thoughts on “[Daily Discussion] – Saturday, July 02, 2022”

  1. Any definitive meme yet to be demolished? Following have already been destroyed:

    Never goes below previous cycle ATH


    10x from price 4 years back

    I suppose weekly close below previous cycle ATH is still to come and we will be done with it in two days.

  2. I was gonna quit r/bitcoinmarkets, but then I got high…

    I was gonna take my cash and park it, but then i got high…

    and now the college fund is totally dry.. and I know whyyyy


    because i got high, because i got high, because i got high

  3. If you want to get really base on the charts (which is useful) we can look at the 200MA weekly and extension over and under the mean (see chart below).

    Price right now is very extended below the 200MA. Whether you’re bullish or bearish, these extremes tend to present trade opportunities as they don’t tend to happen frequently, nor last too long before reversion to mean.

    The chart I’m showing has some regression lines I drew out a couple years back. I haven’t changed them and they still seem relevant in this current interstitial.

    In Bitcoin’s history you’re offered the ‘lows’ infrequently: once every 4 years or so. Buying the cycle bottom is always the same type of bet which is mainly the belief that Bitcoin finds further adoption and sponges fiat.

    I think we’re in this continuation phase bet right now. And like a skipping rock, we need price to push off the friction of the waterline lest it sink.

    To this end, I think this is the price to place those constitutional bets if, and only if, you have the conviction.

  4. My daily, ‘the bottom is in post’, since the bottom on the 18th of June

  5. if we dont dump too hard from here over the next 48 hours ill get cautiously bullish. some of the more serious alt projects also seem like they dont want to go any lower. macro has been taking a severe beating which has pushed coin to lower than imagined levels but consolidating roughly around the old ath (which was truly shocking price at the time) really isnt the worst thing . if volume dries up and we just meander down that would be the worst but holding here while sellers slowly tire themselves out could just as easily happen

  6. For all those people who are thinking about the fact that Bitcoin has fallen below its previous ATH and are like, “people who bought at the top 5 years ago are underwater,” implying how even hodling is losing money now neglect the fact that this is true in so many markets right now.

    I bought Disney at $95 dollars 12 years ago and it is currently trading at….$96, lol. Granted, you would have gotten dividends during that time, but if you’ve been DCA’ing into bitcoin for 5 years or more you’re likely up >100%.

  7. It’s time to buy.

    -2 day chart is below 200ma

    -below 26 on rsi

    -below 20 on stochastic rsi

  8. Since I discovered Bitcoin, everything has gone downhill, except my net wealth.

  9. Is it just me, or does anybody else find it hard to grasp how all these cefi platforms go under this fast? Historically, this downturn is nothing special so far. Did these platforms simply have no risk management or did they basically expect to go bust in the next downturn and make as much money as they can until then?

  10. Fidelity was supposed to launch Bitcoin as a 401k investment option sometime mid year. Anyone know the actual date that’s supposed to launch? We’re at mid year and I can’t seem to find an actual date anywhere.

    Would be pretty sweet to be able to convert 20% of 401k balance into BTC below $20k without any penalty.

  11. In other news: $6 Billion In Deposits Vanished From Banks in China

    This Is Good For Bitcoin

  12. The latest news today is that Voyager’s claimed FDIC insurance only protects customers if the bank they deposited the dollars in fails, not if Voyager fails. Yesterday, Voyager edited their website to “clarify” that.

    The outright criminality in these lending platforms is astonishing. 3 Arrows was clearly a variant of a Ponzi scheme; instead of just using new money to pay old, they borrowed more and more money to pay the withdrawals.

    Voyager executives are undoubtedly going to jail for fraud over this misleading advertising. BlockFi’s website stated that its loans were collateralized when the SEC determined that only 16% were, and the only reason Prince isn’t in jail is because nobody lost any money there. Alex Mashinsky and Celsius haven’t said anything at all for three weeks, and how does someone lose $2 billion in any legitimate business activity when you only have about $6b in assets?

    A week ago, this looked like people were going to lose money because they made “risky investments.” Now, this is turning out to be just plain old fraud.

  13. Maybe we chop here for another month before deciding direction. Nobody’s really got a clue on the short-term direction.

  14. The absolute lowest annualized rate of return BTC has ever had over a 4 year window of time is 24%. In order for BTC to reach $100k by end of 2025, it would need an annualized rate of return of at least 10% off its $69k ATH going forward.

    Minimum 5x from here by end of 2025 assuming BTC only does half as well as its historically done going forward seems like a no-brainer to me regardless of whether or not $17k was the bottom.

  15. So much anxiety here. Bottom is in and we will have an ATH in the future, likely next 2 years

  16. https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1543252335501213698

    Its mooning.. dollar is

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