[Daily Discussion] – Saturday, January 08, 2022

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43 thoughts on “[Daily Discussion] – Saturday, January 08, 2022”

  1. Any thoughts for the market if Russia invades Ukraine? Seems to have been a couple of % move down in stocks last time around and much more in Russia. Worried this might happen in the next month or so, and maybe catalyse another leg down. Possible grey swan?

  2. we actually had 9 of 10 red candles in April so this can still get a bit worse.

  3. You can easily see on the long term chart where the buyers of last resort are. There’s a remarkably smooth curve there, and we occasionally get bull runs that depart upward from that curve, and eventually return there in a bear market. The area between the curve and current price is what we typically call “retail” – people who buy bitcoin and have no idea what they’re buying, who eventually dump (most of them for ~2x profit that would be amazing in any other market).

    They haven’t all dumped yet. The hodler curve sits at about 24k currently. The ONLY time that curve was ever pierced was March 2020 during the covid panic. Lasted about 6 weeks. I don’t expect that to happen again anytime soon.

    We WILL eventually return to that curve. Could be next month or next year. However it is rising by about 10-15k a year. So if it takes a year to really dump it’ll dump to 37k or so.

    Personally, I’m not sweating this. If bitcoin went to 24k tomorrow and hugged the hodler curve for another 3 years, I may need to sell a small part of my stash at 50k.

  4. Seems like we are headed for 7 straight red days. Cryptomarket is correlated from one day to the next so gambler’s fallacy gets thrown out the window. However, it seems like we can make an argument for both sides on whether the probability of having a green day is higher or lower after long sequences of red days. On one hand, “oversold” is a thing in crypto so you can make an argument that we are “due” for a green day. On the other hand, Bitcoin is streaky (you can clearly see this historically) so you can also make an argument that there is an increased likelihood of red day after long sequences of red days.

  5. Will it be another red day? If so then only 1st January is so far green day, what a nice start into 2022

  6. Another red daily candle incoming it seems, that’d be 7 in a row.

    In Bitcoins entire history, 8 red candles is the maximum it has ever printed. Only ONE time in history has Bitcoin ever gone 8 red candles in a row.

    So if we do go red today and tomorrow then Monday could be very interesting indeed.

  7. So annoying that GBTC only trades limited hours. Am I gonna miss the final dip???

  8. I bought some Bitcoin today.

    I’m not afraid of temporary problems. They will go away just like they always have.

  9. CPI reports on Jan 12: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm

    Based on this, FED meeting on Jan 25th and 1st hike in March. If CPI is bad, FED may be more aggressive.

    We better hope CPI is not hot, if we want to bounce back. If it’s bad, BTC in the 30s. If it’s not bad, a little more sideways until FED meeting.

    Objectively the best thing to do here is selling next week if the CPI report is – indeed – bad. Or front run the bad news.

  10. Remember in January 2021 when 40k was Lambo dreams? Now it’s poverty. Amazing what greed does lol.

  11. Flows on chain are still leading price decreases; people are still getting off the ride, but not anywhere near the numbers or volumes seen in November and December.

    Smaller wallet growth is steady, but it’s bigger wallets accumulating – almost certainly not retail activity, but it’s hard to judge that as there are also good centralized options for smaller amounts.

    Weekend is more illiquid so I think we’ll see at least a local bottom tested.

    I’m adding below $41k with a ladder plan down to $35k. A sudden drop that doesn’t rebound, or more dumping on chain will change that plan, however.

  12. Looking at this TA makes me think I should wait until the 30ks to start panic selling then maybe wait until its back around 50k to get in.

  13. Its kinda interesting all the influenzas are calling bottoms and screaming buy but the price hardly seems to be moving. Zu Shu, Kyle Davis, Novograts.. even Raoul Pal posted a bullish take.
    The psy ops are being maxed out while the lamb is being taken to the slaughter house

  14. …. I have a humble request. Can anyone share their basic MA values with me? My cat ran over the keyboard and my cryptowatch is all messed up.

  15. being in a short position while detaining btc feels weird, you want it to go down as much as you want it to go up

  16. Seeing as no one saw the big 42k coming, I wonder if this will only end with another one. Maybe a huge wick into the low 30s would be enough to clear the decks.

    At this point I get the feeling it’s V bottom or nothing

  17. Hello darkness my old friend.

    I really should stop being in denial that its going to get better in 2022

  18. I don’t know if you know him already:

    https://twitter.com/cryptomichnl

    but this guy is a joke, he’s always predicting the obvious that just happened minutes ago and contradicts himself a tweets after when he gets it wrong.

  19. Who will be the next country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender?

    Will this happen in 2022?

    What kind of an effect will this have on the price in the 3-6 months that follow?

  20. Not easy times, but is the RSI seriously below the May crash? it must be close to covid crash too

  21. Just put a bid in for 19 million BTC at $0.01 in case we get a flash crash.

    If all goes to plan I will own every bitcoin in existence

  22. 39.5 K or something like this is the absolute boundary. It is like in the summer, 30K was breached to the downside, but not for too long. So we still have a little bit to go downwards.

  23. This shit has to bounce like now. As bearish as I am this really is too much for essentially one move.

  24. I don’t even think we started to see liquidations yet. Seems people are doubling down. OI isn’t moving. Funding is neutral slightly negative. Lots degenerates for so much alleged fear?

  25. If it makes you feel any better I did one of my biggest buys this year at 68k lol. Stings a little bit, but hey that’s part of the game. Won’t sell a single sat only buy more on the way down. If we break 35k, I’ll match my buy at 68k

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