[Daily Discussion] – Monday, June 13, 2022

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[Daily Discussion] - Monday, June 13, 2022

49 thoughts on “[Daily Discussion] – Monday, June 13, 2022”

  1. Bit of hopium

    Had 3 separate calls from wealthy clients asking if today is a good entry. They have been waiting after missing the 2020/21 bull run.

    My advice was 3 buys this year.

    One now

    One in 2 months

    Final one in 4 months.

    Then switch off

    Note. I’m in the property industry and my clients are heavy property. They are looking at other avenues as property is over valued

  2. I don’t think we’re going to be hearing much about wealth taxes for a long time, lol

  3. It’s gonna drop to 20k or less when JPow opens his mouth on Wednesday, right?

  4. so in my chart we are on a fib that’s also a past high volume area (the little range way on the left). i’m guessing we might bounce around between here and 26 something now. https://imgur.com/a/zsEsXqL if it just keeps going it’ll be done sooner tho

  5. We drop below 20k and it’s going to take two years for crypto to be credible again. Dang

  6. well the price may not be 100k but bitfinex longs just crossed that threshold…so thats nice

  7. I moved my first buy orders down a bit, now 20% at 21k all the way to 14k. Im scared, lads.

  8. by every indicator, today is a capitulation day.

    look at the unmentionable, it basically collapsed overnight.

    this is pure, animalistic panic selling, even worse than the bottom of the bear last cycle, and with the super high volume we are getting today all around this pretty much has to be the bottom day since we always get max volume at the very top and the very bottom

  9. CT is going on about some Celsius CeFi thing imploding, and it having a large holding of wBTC in MakerDAO. Apparently they are on the verge of getting liquidated… This could be more fun before it’s over!

  10. I’m off. Wasted 8 hours watching the RSI collapse to new historical record lows.

    Kudos to everyone who gave Celsius and other 3^rd parties your private keys, all to chase some obviously unsustainable return and a scammy interest rate. Now you’ve cratered the whole market and your APY is -100%.

    Well done.

  11. It’s just shitty because we just simply aren’t supposed to be back at these levels. Just simply not.

  12. Such a big crash with fed just raising rates by 0.75%, and not even reducing its balance sheet. More rate hikes are on the cards + huge balance sheet reduction in the immediate months

    Those holding bitcoin spot or longs are doing so purely on religious beliefs and not based on any technicals or fundamentals

  13. I bought some at 23.6k. My original target was 24k, so I guess I’m doing well. Just gonna DCA when I can. Fight the negativity.

  14. Celsius halts withdrawals and transfers.

    Guess we know where all the coins being dumped were borrowed.

    Accumulate and HODL.

  15. Back in Feb, I set up a “Guess the Low” contest. There were 64 entries:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/syexec/comment/hxyq0wt/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

    The average of the guesses was $24,353.27, and the median was $24,789.50

    At the moment, the low on CBP is $23,406.48, which puts u/EmotionalParsley in first place with a guess of $23,420.69.

    I had buys set ever $1K down to $22K, only $22K and $23K are left. All those Sats I picked up this weekend will turn out to be very cheap, or very expensive. The 200-W SMA is $22,277.

    Speaking of the 200-W, here is what it looked like back in Mar 2020:

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/dQVvHINb/

    That’s a daily chart, with the 1400-D (200-W) SMA as the red line.

    EDIT: Updated low.

  16. Waiting for US market open to see how bad the MSTR wreckage is going to be.

    Will likely buy in there and open a spot leverage long, 3-5X.

  17. Bob Loukas’ opinion is that timewise the bottom is still far. Eoy likely.

    This seems like a good place to buy, but I don’t wanna play catching knifes.

    You know. I can buy at the samw price when it will be coming back during the next bull.

  18. Now that is a decent microbounce and coincidentally almost precisely from the tap of Realised price (23426 yesterday). At least some bots may have been coded to start plucking post that tap.

  19. S&P futures are showing it will open in bear market territory, perhaps today will finally be the day it has its first close in bear market territory. Then, perhaps on Wednesday the Fed will cause markets to dive further by hiking rates 0.75% instead of the 0.5% markets were pricing in as a result of the huge CPI miss for May. Which means companies will have a higher likelihood of beginning mass layoffs as they scramble to cut costs. Which means the jobs report for June which comes out in July before the next Fed meeting would show a spike in unemployment. Which means come the next Fed meeting on July 27, the Fed may be forced into a position where they need to decide if they want to address high inflation or high unemployment but not both at the same time.

    If forced into this position, the Fed will choose to address high unemployment. With high inflation, people are upset but too busy with work and just trying to scrape by to do anything about it. With high unemployment, people are upset and have plenty of free time to resort to violence as they have nothing left to lose since they’ve already lost their jobs.

    Once markets realize the Fed will revert to QE to save them yet again (see 2007, 2019, 2020 for previous reference points), markets will rally tremendously and we’ll start this game all over again where BTC is the best performing asset by far, possibly going as far as rallying 17x from wherever the bottom ends up being yet again.

    Mind you, if this plays out and the Fed raises rates 0.75% this Wednesday, they would have only reached a Fed funds rate of 1.5% before reverting to QE this time around (in 2018 they got to 2.4% before reverting to QE). I say this because they keep kicking the can down the road and at some point there is no longer a road to kick the can down. This is when fiat goes completely bust and hyperbitcoinization occurs. If QE starts up again soon, we would have went through a full QE and QT cycle within just over 2 years. At this rate, the collapse of fiat will occur by the end of the decade.

    “Little by little. Then, suddenly.”

  20. Do you think we are on course to break 100K coin volume for 24 hour BTCUSD on CB? 50K coins already and this is when more than half the previous 24 hours was part of a weekend and US trading hasn’t even begun. The optics sure look like what a capitulation should look like.

  21. https://twitter.com/binance/status/1536322033222664194

    “Binance has temporarily paused #Bitcoin withdrawals on the $BTC network. Meanwhile, you can still withdraw BTC on other networks.

    This is due to a stuck on-chain transaction. Our team is currently working on a solution and will provide further updates soon.”

  22. Do we hit long term support at 22k today? And how soon till we hit 2million per BTC?

  23. sigh. Am I gonna stop buying camping gear and start buying bitcoin? of course the opportunity comes the morning after I find a leak in my fucking ceiling.

    I should rob a bank…

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