[Daily Discussion] – Friday, June 24, 2022

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

  • General discussion related to the day's events
  • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
  • Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

Thread guidelines:

  • Be excellent to each other.
  • Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

Other ways to interact:

Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group

[Daily Discussion] - Friday, June 24, 2022

22 thoughts on “[Daily Discussion] – Friday, June 24, 2022”

  1. This is indirectly related – expect inflation and energy supply problems to reach new heights in Europe this summer, with predictable effects on stock markets. Impact on the global economy and on the price of Bitcoin? If a major power were to occur, is there any chance that the price of Bitcoin would not tank, just like most other major markets, or fall less severely?

    https://eike-klima-energie.eu/2022/06/22/europa-kann-den-winter-nicht-ueberleben/

    … Bruno Burger of the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, who runs the Energy Charts website that provides the public with interactive graphs of electricity production and exchange electricity prices, reported last week on Twitter:

    “In May, more than 4 TWh of electricity was generated from natural gas. That’s a new record for a May month. In fact, with the current gas shortage, one should expect the opposite.”

    … Under the title: ‘There is no escape from the coming energy crisis,’ Anas Alhajji, chief economist of the consulting firm NGP Energy Capital Management, gave a very interesting interview on the MacroVoices podcast(starting at minute 15:20) a few days ago.”

    … He pointed to the very recent calamities: On June 9, an explosion and subsequent fire occurred at a natural gas liquefaction plant owned by the U.S. company Freeport, about a hundred kilometers south of Houston. The LNG terminal, which accounts for about 20 percent of U.S. LNG exports, will be down for many months.This means the loss of LNG supplies that no one can replace.

    A day earlier, Algeria – an ally of Putin – ordered its banks to stop doing business with Spanish companies and threatened to halt gas deliveries. That, too, is a potential disaster for the EU.

    Alhajji predicts a gas crisis in Europe not in winter or October, but already in July or August 2022. Some long-term supply contracts end next month – then Russia will also insist on payment in rubles from these customers and, if they do not comply with the demand, could stop the supply, as it has already done with several EU countries such as Poland, Bulgaria, Finland and the Netherlands.

    Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

  2. Last cycle’s low saw us do about a 20x to ATH, 3k to $60k (rounding numbers here).

    If we assume $17k is going to be the low of a new cycle, any estimates on where the high could land? BTC is of course growing less rapidly than the early days due to maturation..but what does everyone think?

    5x? 7x?

  3. I was bearish since we were in the 60k region the first time. So I sold everything back then and was bearish this whole time. 2 days ago, I bought back at 19800 with 98% of my fiat. I don’t expect a new bull run, it’s just a swing trade, I’m planning to sell in the 27k region as of how things are right now. Yes, it can go higher, maybe 29-30k but greed is not good in the current state of the world.

    Source: weekly charts.

  4. Still in the process of retuning my mind to start thinking of 1K as a large (like 5%) change and not a trivial one like we got used to all through last year. Lol.

  5. Coin #2 has a new local top since the last weekend bottom, interesting to see if they properly break above $1.2k (or make a double top with Jun 21.) Could affect BTC, good to follow imo.

  6. Things looking good. Trad fi green, no more sell pressure from defi liquidation cascade, and options expired. We are ready for take of but are we going to? Stay tuned!

  7. In case you still want to watch old men talk about Central Banks and Inflation (live right now.) James Bullard (FOMC member) and Luis de Guindos (Vice-President ECB) at https://www.ubs.com/global/en/investment-bank/conferences/emea/central-banks-and-inflation.html Few quotes from Bullard on https://nitter.net/DeItaone

  8. Question to the bears here: What makes you think the price will go considerably below 17600 (our current low)? If I had to come up with an anwer I would say: a) duration of this bear market (we still have about five months until it is 1 year old) b) alts recovering too fast c) during the last bear market, the price collapsed by about 85 percent from the 2017 ATH. d) lack of bounce that seems to be fizzling out; buy volumes look lackluster.

    At a sceond glance, I am increasinlgy concerned the market could be anticipating more black swan / grey elephant events, not least a major (country or continent-wide) power outage in Europe sometime in the second half of the year or in early 2023. I know I may sound like a broken record, and I am also aware that such fears are to some extent an intended reaction, but the rising likelihood of this possibility worries me considerably. If that were to happen, we would almost certainly see much lower prices.

    Other reasons / arguments?

  9. here is a point of view I’d like to share: I know we are nearly 3 M in the red BUT!
    after careful and thorough analysis I performed (I cannot disclose any details pertaining to aplied mehods) my take is bullish AF. why? assuming deep green July, we begin the stairway to heaven rally starting in autumn followed by nicely rounded hills with explosive peaks reaching high 70 ties December. Conclusion is 75k top till EOY. why?

    why the hell not? anyone else posted here such plain nonsense? sure they did, but bearish-wise and I got sick of it to the bones. hence my humble proposal. all we need is a little push over the edge and it will come soon enough. i get it we took a major hit all right. times are hard. however! every wound will eventually heal and the night is darkest before dawn.
    to – the – stars!
    ps. cycle bottom reached & sideways is history. catching my drift?

  10. where’s the dude that was journaling every day about how we were still in a bull market a couple months back? Is he ok?

  11. Another shitcoin hacked and lost 100m. This is why we stick with bitcoin.

    https://decrypt.co/103736/harmony-plunges-10-as-horizon-ethereum-bridge-hacked-for-100-million

  12. Altcoins once again are destroying BTC. People will continue to say it’s not a problem, but it absolutely is.

  13. All those folks who got fucked over by Celsius et Al., sorry man. You should have known better. Don’t trust centralized services. Much less services that promises insanely high APY and can’t tell you how that shit is generated. Cleanse them all I say. Put them all in jail then cut their heads off one by one

  14. The “chaos proxy” theory of bitcoin pricing posits that bitcoin pricing is at least partially related to global and national macro factors that prompt human migration between countries, as a neutral monetary surrogate with sovereignless remittance and high portability is more valuable with more migration. So, political chaos is an upwards factor for price action. Is it true? I’m not sure, but BTC pricing has been an upwards trajectory since 2008, and US political chaos has also been on an upwards trajectory since then. But, on daily time frames, the high volatility of the BTCUSD market tends to overshadow individual events.

Leave a Comment