[Daily Discussion] – Friday, June 17, 2022

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[Daily Discussion] - Friday, June 17, 2022

31 thoughts on “[Daily Discussion] – Friday, June 17, 2022”

  1. It is not the drop that is concerning me but it is the lack of the bounce that is the most bothersome. Bitcoin is oversold to the historical extreme but the lack of bounce means that buyers who can move this market are anticipation this will go lower.

  2. If you’re one of those who waited until the $20k’s to DCA in, congratulations!

    You’re smarter than some of the most prominent billionaires and presidents (a la Musk, Saylor, Cathie, Bukele, etc) who are heavily underwater right now

  3. Everyone knows Warren Buffet: “Be greedy when others are fearful…”

    My own motto is, “figure out whatever normtards are doing and do the opposite.”

    I have made and lost fortunes off of this credo, and it’s not really actionable advice. It’s more of an ethos. For instance, back in the day there were two varieties of normtard. The ones that thought all crypto was a scam, and the ones in crypto who thought Bitcoin was “old tech.” This is how I became sure Bitcoin was the right bet, because it was in the center of the Venn diagram of what normtards were avoiding.

    My conviction has never shaken from that point onward.

  4. Bought 1 btc for $20500, available coins are drying up!

    Not sure if I should use the rest of my dry powder yet…

  5. El Salvador has 2,301 Bitcoins acquired at an average price of $45,171 each. Total value $47 million. They should round that up to 10,000 bitcoins and drastically lower the average price. It won’t be popular but Bukele should do it.

  6. Where is the 30 to 50k coin volume daily coming from on the buy-side? We know the other side is composed a fair bit by liquidations but we also know retail is out.

  7. Apologies for bearishness but I cannot see $20k holding for the next 6-12 months. Setting buys $19.6k and $19.2k

  8. There is too much expectation that it will fall below 20k, which makes me think it won’t happen. But there is too much time here to be the bottom. Bitcoin you have me confused… again.

  9. 20k today feels like 10k 2018.
    We tested it a bunch of times but at the end it failed to hold. And we dumped to 6-7k.

    I honestly see it exactly the same…

  10. Thought I’d share something interesting I stumbled onto when looking at the historic BTC chart. The interaction between the 21EMA and the 300MA on the 3D has been pretty bang on in calling the cycle bottoms. We’re currently crossing down right now.

    In addition, when the 21EMA finally crosses to the upside, it’s been a strong signal for a prolonged rally.

    Moving average interactions/crosses aren’t exactly anything new .. but I’ve never looked at this pairing on this timeframe.. and was surprised to see how accurately it’s captured cycle lows. It’s only 3 data points however .. it will be interesting to see how it plays out this go around.



    As it was estimated, but to keep updated.

  12. Unless there is some kind of hope of war ending, I don’t see how we can rebound. Fed raising interest is putting a break on liquidity, the LUNA run started because VCs run out of liquidity. Price would not recover until expectations change. The sell off started last weekend, just as market sniffed higher than 50 bp rate up. Price are increasingly dictated by wall street analyst rather than tech nerds.

  13. Here’s a model I made showing the expected value of buying $1K worth of Bitcoin today. The maths is straight forward and simply shows Bitcoin is a better buy than the S&P 500. The key variables are highlighted blue and I think these are conservative


  14. Just heard a story on bbc radio about El Salvador’s terrible bitcoin investments and the crypto crash while driving home at 2am. Bullish.

  15. So if 20k breaks, is there any support at all down to 14k? It’s pretty uncharted territory, we just blasted through it on the way up.

  16. I have just taken a look at the chart for the 1 month prior to 20K breakout in Dec 2020. The price I see crossed multiple times during that period in both directions is around 17.8k (3 going up and 3 coming down). The deepest pullback during that period went to 16.5k.

    Here is how that pullback to 16.5k felt (to judge whether people were already degening at the time and could that have implications now..)


  17. Yesterday, I posted a longer comment in which I voiced my frustration over what look to be fast diminishing returns and a gut feeling of mine that something deeper was amiss with Bitcoin’s performance since the end of the 2017 bull run. Another poster then drew attention to Bitcoin’s record-low Sortino ratio, which, if I understood it correctly refers to an assets downside or risk-adjusted performance.

    We briefly talked about the possibility that BTC’s weak performance, not least in comparison to almost all altcoins in 2021, when it came in at third last (before BTC Cash and Litecoin) might be due to price manipulations undertaken by the financial establishment using BTC futures, significant dilution as a consequence of the large alt and stablecoin markets, and exchanges engaging in fractional lending.

    While I still have these concerns and worries about BTC being on a (price) trajectory that would fast render it uninteresting to both the smart & big money and retail, I do see potential for the current situation to change. Firstly, I am mildly hopeful that the unspectacular but stubborn support we are currently witnessing slightly above 20K is an indication that a wick below the 2017 ATH, spooky though such an occurrence might be, would essentially remain a rather short-lived affair.

    Looking at the time it took for the price to reach the bottom after the 2013 and 2017 bull markets, I believe that, against all odds, if you will, there is a fair chance this bear market will bottom out even faster. In doing so, trust would be reestablished in the notion that Bitcoin is not just a fair weather asset but in fact capable of showing price movement that is uncorrelated with traditional markets. Such a turn of events would, hopefully, be beneficial in demonstrating that Bitcoin’s infamous drawdowns are gradually becoming less severe.

    Last but not least, I am hoping that further countries and central banks will soon follow El Salvador’s example and announce that they have bought BTC. This would be key in distinguishing BTC from its myriad would-be competitors and stablecoins, which all lack its unique combination of characteristics and which are not capable of dethroning BTC on an individual basis, but at the hands of which BTC’s performance has faced considerable headwinds lately. I am convinced that should a banking crisis rear its ugly head, BTC’s attributes and number one position would mark it out as the primary save haven in the world of non-traditional finance.

    As far as price manipulation and suppression through the use of BTC futures by the financial powers that be is concerned, I can remember that this possibility was raised several times here in early 2018. I don’t understand remotely enough to assess this technical subject but admit that this issue has caused me some worry, also with a view to claims made by gold-bugs who have been arguing for decades that the price of their physical PM assets have deliberately been distorted and suppressed with “paper gold”. Having that said, when we consider that a system of manipulation and suppression of price discovery ultimately, too, relies on people accepting and agreeing that fiat money has and is capable of retaining its “ascribed” value, then I can dimly envision an abstract future in which such schemes are doomed to fail and unravel spectacularly.

    To be sure, the world’s major central banks are working hard to create a successor to the current system with their CBDCs, and I am certain that they will do their utmost to market these solutions as trustworthy, and, once they feel the time has arrived, engineer a transition that will be as smooth as possible. This notwithstanding, as a simple matter of fact Bitcoin enthusiasts will be able to rightfully claim that “their” asset has been around for a longer time and should enjoy a greater level of trust.

    Maybe I am just getting high on hopium, but these kinds of thoughts are helping me navigate the current dispiriting sentiment with a sense of positivity and stoicism.

    Any observations, comments, thoughts and criticism are welcome.

  18. Arthur is looking to buy some trash.

  19. Chances of the institutions who bought in the 20s and dumped in the 50s coming back for round two?

  20. With the real threat of sub 20k prices and a liquidation cascade, it seems market participants have been scrambling to pay off debts and deleverage to lower their liquidation price.

    If most have now managed to push their liquidation points below 15k, then it’s an expensive task for market makers to chase, especially when you consider all the dry powder waiting on the sidelines if we dip below 20k. We’re certainly not out of the woods though…if the retards start longing on leverage it would give the mm’s the fuel they need to push prices lower.

    The fact that the lowered liquidation prices has entered my conscious mind, makes it something that I’m ‘supposed’ to think. So I guess the play here is mm’s trying to convince everyone that 20k is solid support. If/when retards get complacent and go long, we get smashed down. See recent PA at 30k for reference

    Buy spot. Don’t long on leverage here for all our sakes

  21. Not much analysis ‘round these parts so here ya go. Some hopium from Nasdaq of all places. Try not to OD.


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