[Daily Discussion] – Friday, July 01, 2022

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

  • General discussion related to the day's events
  • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
  • Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

Thread guidelines:

  • Be excellent to each other.
  • Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

Other ways to interact:

Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group

[Daily Discussion] - Friday, July 01, 2022

31 thoughts on “[Daily Discussion] – Friday, July 01, 2022”

  1. The CME gap theory was always an interesting one…

    3rd time crash rider here. This time i was lucky enough to close greedy longs and shorts and get out with my capital and a meagre few 100000 sats alive.

    Lost my shirt but still got the skin on my back.

  2. just adding some facial detail to the textbook stegosaurus pattern posted 2 days ago.

  3. What are these candles, lol, I am just waking up… RIP to the high leverage shorters, and then the longers too. Well played Bitcoin…

  4. I remember people here used to laugh at the whales for their “futile attempt to manipulate price” when bitcoin pull back to 14k, only to went right back to 19k. “No ones would sell at this price level”, they said

    … And the rest is history.

    Would be interesting to see the opposite happens.

  5. Someone is on a mission. Terminator style. Shorts being cleared before business as usual

  6. My daily, ‘the bottom is in post’, since the bottom on the 18th of June

  7. Am I the only one to be happy for the price to be crashing down? Just sitting here with popcorn and bunch of cash ready.

  8. El salvador buys 80 btc….

    We truely are in bear market if a buy of 1.5 Million makes headlines..

  9. It is a subtle point but during such fear and price downtrend, what you don’t want to see is for price to slide and Realised price (average cost basis) to have gone up. That can only happen if the price goes down because of exit liquidity being provided by old coins previously moved at very low prices.

    This is not what is being observed right now as Realised price (now 22.3K) is creeping down gently which means a reasonable amount of fear that is making those who bought high capitulate.

    Ultimately the ‘coming out of bear’ is signaled by price and Realised price both creeping up slowly and doing that sustained for a while.

  10. Eurozone June CPI 8.6% YoY (preliminary)

    Month Preliminary forecast Preliminary Actual
    Jun 8.4 8.6 Jul 19
    May 7.7 8.1 8.1
    Apr 7.5 7.5 7.4
    Mar 6.6 7.5 7.4
    Feb 5.3 5.8 5.9

    edit: core CPI 3.7%, was 3.8% in May.

  11. Hi All,

    So there are quite a few talking points today.

    Firstly before details of a relief rallies and recessions, BTC continued its third wave down in the prevailing trend. 20k holding as a major support as expected, expecting a relief rally into a corrective wave 4.

    The daily fib channel has been stuck in a falling wedge since we started wave 1 correction back in November 2021. BTC is the crypto-index – The rest of the market is also in the same wedge. We are seeing signs of a bullish divergence on the daily. The local resistance is testing resistance on the 4 hour with a stronger divergence, though, shorter timeframes have a higher rate of false-positives. Anyhow, in the event of breakup, target sits at the 50-MA & falling wedge resistance line at 25000 USD.

    The equities market relief rally looks to be slowing/retracing as the market has closed negative the last few days. A bounce off the 4-year MA is quite common, and it aligns with the 0 fib channel support. Perhaps bouncing off ~3500 USD. This could ignite cryptos corrective wave 4.

    All credit to BonzoDDDB for spotting the US10Y-US02Y flirting with turning negative. The last times we had an average US10Y-US02Y crossup from negative to positive…

    ’89 before black monday

    ’98 & ’00 before the tech bubble

    ’07 before the housing crash

    ’19 before covid

    ’22 before ???

    The US10Y-US02Y can stay negative for months to a year at a time. This will give crypto enough headroom for a relief rally before the final wave 5 down in the prevailing trend.

    I expect our bottom to align with equities, as the whole market (equities, crypto and precious metals) is sitting in a falling wedge (a very bullish formation). Somewhere in the 13000-8000 USD range based on 2022 supports (which aligns with historical drawdowns).

    Happy Trading

  12. Arthur’s missive is good today. A disection of the credit implosion among crypto lenders.

    https://blog.bitmex.com/number-three/

    edit: I pulled the last of my blockfi deposits. I hope to be able to use them again in the future.

  13. I guess with Bitcoin entries, a clear risk to be aware of, ought to be ‘Unwinding/ deleveraging risk’ which means news could be as good as it can and yet the fact that many participants were degens in an unregulated market can cause price to slide.

    The way to mitigate this is to time your entries to periods like now where fear is high and degening if at all might be in the opposite direction which can actually juice up your entry in medium term.

    Do the Bitcoin ETF providers / applicants who have all kinds of risks listed in their prospectus call this out specifically?

  14. Anyone else amazed by the buy/sell volume ratio? It’s nearly 2:1 the past 12 hours. Buy two coins, sell one, end up at the same price as before, or so to speak.

  15. That end of month bull trap sure got everyone excited.

    It seems obvious to me that there is a lot of money sitting around waiting on positive news. There just isn’t any to be found. When there is, this will turn around quickly.

  16. Not sure what to make of it, but apparently the Bank for International Settlements will allow member banks to hold reserves in BTC, as per ZH:

    >BIS To Allow Member Banks To Hold 1% Of Their Reserves In Bitcoin

    *thanks /u/roybadami

  17. Proud owner of 100 MSTR shares now. Hoping to dump this at 1000 bucks a share in a few years so I can finally get started on a house xD

  18. just curious are there any twitter accounts you guys follow that called the top in nov last year. For me only pentosh1 did.

Leave a Comment